Market Overview for Bittensor/Bitcoin (TAOBTC) on 2025-10-04

• Price declined from 0.002684 to 0.002588, forming a bearish continuation pattern
• RSI below 30 indicates oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce
• Bollinger Bands show contraction, pointing to a possible breakout
• Volume dipped after the midday low, indicating waning selling pressure
• MACD remains bearish, though momentum appears to be slowing

The Bittensor/Bitcoin (TAOBTC) pair opened at 0.002681 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.002588 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.002684 and a low of 0.002583. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 597.79 BTC, and notional turnover amounted to $1,564.19, based on the price range and volume traded.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a strong bearish trend with several key support levels tested and broken, including a critical support near 0.002630 and a deeper support at 0.002588. Notable bearish patterns include a long lower shadow indicating rejection near 0.002598 and a bearish engulfing pattern observed in the 15-minute chart around 10:45 ET. A doji appeared near the midday session, suggesting indecision between buyers and sellers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below key support levels, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages show a descending alignment, confirming the broader bearish trend and lack of near-term upside momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below the signal line for much of the session, reflecting bearish momentum, while the RSI dipped below 30 into oversold territory, potentially signaling a short-term buying opportunity. However, the RSI failed to show a strong reversal above 30, which suggests that the bearish momentum is still intact, and further consolidation or a test of lower levels may follow.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands displayed a narrowing pattern in the early part of the session, suggesting low volatility and a potential breakout. By midday, the price found itself near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions and a possible reversal. However, the failure to break back above the middle band suggests that the breakout may be delayed or that bearish pressure remains dominant.

Volume & Turnover

Volume saw a noticeable drop-off in the late afternoon and early evening sessions, which coincided with the price consolidating near the lower end of the Bollinger Band. This indicates waning selling pressure but does not necessarily signal a bullish reversal. The notional turnover also declined during this period, further supporting the idea that the market may be pausing ahead of the next move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the recent high of 0.002684 to the low of 0.002583 include the 38.2% retracement at 0.002634 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.002609. Price has tested the 61.8% level and failed to hold above it, suggesting that the 38.2% level may be the next target if a short-term rally materializes.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level with a stop-loss just below the recent support at 0.002588. A take-profit target might be set near the 50% retracement level at 0.002633, with position sizing based on volatility measured by the ATR (Average True Range) over the past 20 periods. This approach would aim to capture a potential short-term bounce within a defined risk-reward framework. The strategy would be most effective in a range-bound environment or after a consolidation period following a strong bearish move. It should be backtested with historical data to assess its performance across different volatility regimes and liquidity conditions. The 15-minute timeframe would be appropriate for execution, with orders placed near the open of key Fibonacci levels.