Market Overview: Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) 24-Hour Analysis

• Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) saw a volatile 24-hour session with a high of 424,780 and a low of 411,185.
• Price action featured multiple bearish reversals and a late-day rally into the close.
• RSI indicated overbought conditions at close, while volume was concentrated in key turning points.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion after a mid-day consolidation.
• A divergence between price and volume suggested mixed sentiment during the rally.

At 12:00 ET–1 on October 11, 2025, Bitcoin/Zloty (BTCPLN) opened at 421,047. Over the next 24 hours, the pair reached a high of 424,780 and a low of 411,185 before closing at 423,364 at 12:00 ET on October 12. Total volume traded was 2.18 BTC, with notional turnover amounting to approximately 939.8 million PLN.

The 24-hour candlestick chart revealed a series of bearish and bullish reversals. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top of the range near 424,780, while a long bullish wick emerged as the price rallied from a low of 411,185 to close above 423,000. Key support levels held at 415,000 and 412,000, with the latter tested twice before a rebound. Resistance levels at 420,000 and 424,000 were both broken but failed to hold during pullbacks. A doji candle formed near the 418,000 level, suggesting indecision in the market.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover in the morning, with the 20-period MA crossing below the 50-period MA. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA (at ~418,000) was crossed above by the price, indicating a potential short-term reversal in trend. The 200-day MA, currently at ~410,000, acted as a strong support level during the early afternoon dip. The price spent much of the session above all major MAs, signaling continued bullish momentum.

MACD remained positive for much of the session, with a bullish crossover forming just before the final rally. The histogram expanded as the price surged toward the close, suggesting strong buying pressure. RSI hit overbought territory near the close, reaching 70, which may signal a potential pullback. However, the indicator had also been in overbought conditions during the early morning, suggesting bullish continuation is still possible. The RSI divergence observed during a brief pullback at 414,000 showed mixed signals.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after a consolidation period between 418,000 and 413,000. The price spent the final hours of the session in the upper band, indicating strong volatility and bullish momentum. The contraction before the expansion suggests a potential breakout was in the making. The middle band (20-period SMA) crossed above the 50-period MA at around 419,000, reinforcing the bullish setup.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the major 15-minute swing from 411,185 to 424,780 showed that the price retested key levels. The 61.8% retracement at ~418,000 held as support, and the 38.2% retracement at ~419,000 served as a minor resistance. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the previous downswing from ~423,500 to ~411,000 was around 419,000, which aligns with the key support level observed on the 15-minute chart.

Volume increased during key turning points, particularly during the morning and late afternoon. The largest volume spike occurred during the price surge from 411,000 to 424,780, confirming the strength of the move. However, during the pullback from the high of 424,780 to 414,000, volume was relatively thin, suggesting a potential divergence between price and volume. This could indicate weakening bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could focus on identifying the bearish engulfing pattern observed near 424,780 as a sell trigger, paired with a confirmation of RSI overbought conditions. A stop-loss could be placed above the high of the engulfing candle, with a take-profit target set at the next Fibonacci support level (~418,000). For the bullish case, a long entry could be triggered on a break of the 419,000 support-turned-resistance, confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover. Trailing stops could follow the upper Bollinger Band during strong upward momentum.