Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) – October 7, 2025

• BTCJPY opened at ¥18,781,048 and closed at ¥18,832,555, with a high of ¥18,956,079 and low of ¥18,344,523.
• Price retraced 61.8% of its 15-minute swing before rebounding, hinting at potential short-term support.
• RSI reached oversold territory near 18, signaling a potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, reflecting increased volatility and heightened market uncertainty.
• Turnover surged in the 15-hour period from 19:00 to 10:00 ET, but volume declined in the final 6 hours despite a sharp price drop.

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥18,781,048 on October 6 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥18,832,555 on October 7 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of ¥18,956,079 and a low of ¥18,344,523 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was approximately 86.19 BTC, with a notional turnover of ¥15,932,837,666, reflecting a significant increase in liquidity and volatility.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart exhibited multiple key support and resistance levels, with notable candlestick patterns emerging around ¥18,800,000 and ¥18,700,000. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed at ¥18,780,000, followed by a bearish harami at ¥18,950,000. These patterns suggest short-term indecision but reinforce ¥18,700,000 as a key support zone. A doji appeared at ¥18,820,000 during the morning session, signaling a potential reversal after a sharp upswing.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (SMA) crossed multiple times during the session, indicating high volatility. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic support during the late-night and early-morning hours, while the 20-period MA diverged and crossed above it during the rally on October 6, confirming short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs remained in an uptrend, with BTCJPY closing above all three lines.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a divergence during the late-night sell-off on October 6, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line at ¥18,700,000, suggesting bearish momentum. However, by the early hours of October 7, the histogram began to narrow and the MACD line crossed back above the signal line, hinting at a potential short-term reversal. The RSI dropped to an oversold level of ~18 during the low at ¥18,344,523, which may indicate a potential bounce from this level. Overbought conditions were observed at ¥18,950,000 with an RSI of 82, signaling potential exhaustion in the rally.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 24-hour period, reflecting heightened volatility. The price spent much of the session near the lower band, particularly during the sharp correction from ¥18,956,079 to ¥18,344,523. A bounce off the lower band at ¥18,344,523 coincided with the RSI reaching oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term floor. The upper band remained above ¥18,950,000 throughout the session, acting as a resistance during the rally.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply during the late-night and early-morning hours, with the largest single candle (¥18,956,079) trading at 1.075 BTC and another large bearish candle at ¥18,743,297 with 1.644 BTC volume. Turnover spiked during these periods, aligning with price action and confirming the move. However, in the final 6 hours, while BTCJPY fell sharply to ¥18,344,523, volume and turnover declined, indicating a lack of conviction among sellers and potential exhaustion in the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from ¥18,709,348 to ¥18,956,079, BTCJPY retraced to the 61.8% level (¥18,818,000) and then bounced. This level appears to have acted as a key support during the correction. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements from the previous week's high were near ¥18,950,000 and ¥18,800,000 respectively, aligning with the key resistance and support levels observed in the 15-minute chart.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy aligns closely with the technical indicators observed today. By using the RSI as an entry filter to identify oversold conditions and Bollinger Bands as a volatility gauge, the strategy could have captured the bounce from ¥18,344,523. Additionally, the crossover of the 20-period and 50-period SMAs during the morning rally could have acted as a confirmation of the short-term bullish trend. A stop-loss placed below the ¥18,700,000 support level and a take-profit at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at ¥18,818,000 would have provided a clear risk-reward framework for the trade.