Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY)

• Price surged from ¥16,781,748 to ¥16,943,446 before retracing to ¥16,832,674.
• Momentum strengthened during the 04:00–06:00 ET session but weakened after 10:00 ET.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the 03:30–06:45 ET window.
• Turnover spiked during sharp bullish moves, confirming directional strength.
• A potential bearish reversal pattern formed around ¥16,900,000.

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥16,781,748 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥16,832,674 on 2025-09-11 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of ¥16,943,446 and a low of ¥16,711,692. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 55.76 BTC, with a notional turnover of ¥9,489,132,483.

Structure & Formations

Price advanced sharply between 03:30 and 06:45 ET, forming bullish continuation patterns and reaching ¥16,943,446. A potential bearish reversal pattern, characterized by a long upper shadow and a lower close, formed near ¥16,900,000 after a sharp rally. Support levels at ¥16,840,000 and ¥16,780,000 appear to have held during consolidation periods, suggesting key psychological barriers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remained above the 20- and 50-period moving averages for most of the session, confirming bullish momentum in the early hours. However, after 10:00 ET, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, forming a bearish “death cross” signal. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA appears to act as dynamic support near ¥16,750,000, while the 200-day MA, currently at ¥16,600,000, remains a long-term floor.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed strong bullish divergence early in the session, with a positive histogram peaking at ¥16,930,000. However, by 10:00 ET, the histogram began to shrink and turned negative, signaling weakening momentum. RSI moved into overbought territory above 70 in the early morning before retreating into neutral territory. By 13:00 ET, RSI dipped below 50, indicating bearish exhaustion after the consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility widened significantly during the 03:30–06:45 ET window, with price moving above the upper Bollinger Band and forming a breakout pattern. After 09:00 ET, volatility began to contract, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. Price has since re-entered the band, with the lower band currently sitting near ¥16,780,000, offering a key support zone.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early morning rally, particularly in the 05:30–06:45 ET window, confirming the bullish move. However, after 10:00 ET, volume declined as price consolidated, suggesting weakening conviction. Notional turnover aligned with price direction during the bullish phase but diverged as the price retraced, indicating possible uncertainty among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the ¥16,711,692 to ¥16,943,446 swing, key levels include 61.8% at ¥16,879,000 and 38.2% at ¥16,830,000, which have both acted as resistance during recent pullbacks. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels from a prior high to low suggest ¥16,750,000 as a critical support for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy would involve entering a long position when price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band with high volume and RSI above 60, with a stop-loss placed below the 20-period MA. A short entry could be triggered when the MACD histogram turns negative and RSI falls below 40, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This approach would aim to capture both breakout and reversal momentum, leveraging volatility and volume as filters to reduce false signals.