Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) - 24-Hour Summary

• BTCJPY traded in a bullish trend, with a 24-hour high of ¥17,977,864 and a low of ¥17,617,080.
• Momentum indicators showed signs of overbought conditions in the latter half of the session.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with several breakouts above prior resistance levels.
• Volume spiked during key 15-minute intervals, confirming strong directional bias.
• A potential consolidation phase emerged near ¥18 million, suggesting a possible retracement.

At 12:00 ET on October 2, 2025, BTCJPY opened at ¥17,617,080 and closed at ¥18,035,176 by 12:00 ET on October 3. The 24-hour high was ¥17,977,864, while the low was ¥17,617,080. The total volume traded over this period was 165.69 BTC, and notional turnover amounted to approximately ¥28,309,536,885. Price action showed a consistent upward bias with a strong close near the high of the session.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed several key resistance levels, including ¥17,750,000, ¥17,850,000, and ¥18,000,000, which were tested and held multiple times. A notable bullish engulfing pattern formed at ¥17,700,000–17,730,000 during the early afternoon, signaling a potential reversal. A strong bullish breakout occurred at ¥17,800,000, with a confirmation candle closing above the level. The late session saw a 15-minute doji near ¥18,000,000, suggesting indecision ahead of ¥18,100,000, which could become a short-term resistance level.

Moving Averages and Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, BTCJPY closed above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, suggesting strong upward momentum in the short term. The 50-period EMA crossed above the 20-period EMA in the late morning, confirming a bullish crossover. On a broader scale, the 50/100/200 daily moving averages indicate a strong uptrend, with the 50-period MA comfortably above the 200-period MA. Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion in the mid-session, coinciding with a sharp move toward ¥18,000,000. Price remained near the upper band for much of the session, indicating high volatility and strong bullish sentiment.

Momentum and Indicators

The MACD histogram showed a strong positive divergence from 17:00 to 20:00 ET, with the line remaining above the zero level, indicating continued upward momentum. The RSI climbed into overbought territory (above 70) toward the end of the session, especially around ¥18,000,000 and ¥18,035,000. This suggests a possible short-term pullback unless a strong positive catalyst emerges. However, divergence between the RSI and price did not occur, so the bullish trend remains intact.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the breakout from ¥17,800,000 to ¥18,000,000, with several 15-minute intervals exceeding 4 BTC traded. This confirms strong participation and conviction in the upward move. Notional turnover increased in tandem with the price rally, particularly in the hours leading to the 12:00 ET close. No significant divergence was observed between volume and price, indicating that the rally is supported by solid buying interest. A small drop in volume occurred during the doji formation near ¥18,000,000, signaling a pause but not a reversal in the trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from ¥17,617,080 to ¥17,800,000, BTCJPY found support near the 38.2% level (¥17,710,000) and the 61.8% level (¥17,755,000). On a daily basis, the recent swing from ¥17,617,080 to ¥18,035,176 aligns with key retracement levels of ¥17,845,000 (38.2%) and ¥17,890,000 (61.8%). Price action confirmed these levels as significant areas of interest, with potential for retracements or continuation depending on the following 24-hour session.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a long position on BTCJPY when the 20-period EMA crosses above the 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, provided the price remains above the 50-period daily moving average. Exit the position when the RSI crosses below 50 or when the price breaks below a recent swing low by 1%. The strategy also includes a stop-loss at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level below the entry price. Given the recent EMA crossover and the strong RSI reading near overbought levels, this strategy aligns well with the current bullish setup. The high volume and confirmation of key resistance levels suggest that the strategy could yield a favorable risk/reward profile, assuming the current trend remains intact.

The next 24 hours may see BTCJPY testing ¥18,100,000 as a new resistance level or encountering a pullback to ¥17,800,000–17,850,000. Traders should monitor the RSI closely for signs of overbought divergence and watch for volume confirmation during any key breaks. As always, volatility and macroeconomic factors could shift the market abruptly, so risk management remains essential.