Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) – 24-Hour Summary

• Bitcoin/Yen traded with a sharp rebound in the last 24 hours, reaching a high of ¥17,238,474.
• A consolidation phase followed, with price settling near ¥16,999,840 at 12:00 ET.
• Volatility remains elevated, with a total volume of 33.16 BTC and ¥5.67 billion turnover.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions earlier, but momentum has since softened.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged post-¥17,100,000, suggesting short-term buying interest.

At 12:00 ET-1, Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥17,041,597 and surged to a peak of ¥17,238,474 before consolidating, with a 24-hour low of ¥16,922,223. At 12:00 ET, it closed at ¥16,999,840. Total volume traded was 33.16 BTC, with a turnover of ¥5.67 billion. The session featured high volatility, especially during the early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bullish engulfing pattern near ¥17,100,000, followed by a sharp rally to ¥17,238,474. This was followed by a pullback and a bearish consolidation phase. Key support levels emerged around ¥17,000,000 and ¥16,920,000, with resistance at ¥17,200,000 and ¥17,300,000. A doji appeared at ¥17,200,000, suggesting indecision and possible reversal. A strong bearish divergence in price and volume is visible in the latter half of the session, indicating caution.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price crossed above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages during the morning rally, forming a potential bullish crossover. However, this was followed by a retest of the 50-period line. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 100-period and 200-period lines, indicating a longer-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bullish crossover in the morning, supporting the price surge, but the line has since flattened and turned bearish as the price corrected. The RSI reached overbought levels above 70 in the early hours, peaking at around 72 before falling back below 50. This suggests fading momentum in the short term. An oversold reading in the last 2–3 hours signals a potential short-term floor at ¥16,920,000–¥16,930,000.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the morning rally, with the upper band reaching ¥17,250,000. Price action then retested the lower band in the late afternoon, staying within the band range. A contraction in the band width is visible in the latter part of the session, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. This pattern may precede a breakout or a continuation in the current range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning rally, peaking at ¥5.17 billion in a single hour as price approached ¥17,200,000. However, the following decline saw a noticeable drop in volume, signaling weaker conviction among buyers. Turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with a significant portion of the 24-hour turnover concentrated in the morning and midday periods. Divergence between volume and price during the afternoon consolidation suggests a potential shift in market sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the ¥16,922,223 to ¥17,238,474 swing, key levels at 61.8% (¥17,130,000) and 38.2% (¥17,090,000) have acted as support and resistance. The 100% level at ¥17,354,725 may represent a potential target for a breakout if the bullish momentum resumes. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement from the recent high to low sits near ¥17,100,000, currently acting as a psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering a long position on a bullish engulfing pattern followed by a crossover of the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on a 15-minute chart. This aligns with today’s observed structure near ¥17,100,000. The strategy would have triggered a long entry during the morning hours, with a stop-loss placed below ¥17,000,000 and a target near ¥17,250,000. Given the divergence in momentum and volume after the initial rally, this strategy would benefit from a trailing stop or a reentry strategy after a pullback to ¥17,000,000.