Market Overview: Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) 24-Hour Price Action and Volatility

• BTCJPY surged above ¥16.3M on high volume, showing strong bullish momentum.
• Volatility spiked midday before stabilizing into a tight consolidation phase.
• RSI and MACD suggest potential overbought conditions, hinting at possible near-term pullback.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the rally, signaling increased market uncertainty.
• Key Fibonacci levels at ¥16.43M and ¥16.64M may act as pivot points for direction.

Opening Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-05, Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥16,467,356 and closed at ¥16,686,604 after reaching a high of ¥16,768,805 and a low of ¥16,241,993. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 109.35 BTC, and notional turnover was ¥18,296,324,811. Price action reflected a volatile session with a sharp rally from early afternoon through the evening.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a strong bullish trend from 23:15 to 06:00 ET on 2025-09-04, followed by a consolidation phase. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 09:15 ET as prices fell from ¥16,714,053 to ¥16,697,883. Later, a bullish reversal appeared at 12:45 ET on 2025-09-05, with a hammer-like structure forming at ¥16,636,660, indicating renewed buying interest after the sharp sell-off earlier in the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, BTCJPY closed above both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, suggesting ongoing bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-day EMAs were not provided, but the current price appears to be above the 100-day MA. The short-term trend is positive, but a reversal below the 50-EMA could trigger bearish follow-through.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line during the midday rally, confirming bullish momentum. RSI hit 70+ levels during the peak at ¥16,768,805, signaling overbought conditions. A pullback to RSI below 60 may indicate a temporary pause. However, as long as the 15-minute RSI stays above 50 and the MACD remains positive, the bullish case remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early morning rally and began to contract after 11:00 ET as prices entered a consolidation phase. Price currently sits near the upper band, suggesting stretched conditions and a potential reversal if the bands begin to narrow further.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 02:00–06:00 ET window, peaking at over ¥1.75 billion in turnover as BTCJPY moved above ¥16,500,000. The high volume confirmed the strength of the rally. However, as price pulled back in the afternoon, volume dropped sharply, indicating fading conviction. Divergence between volume and price action during the sell-off from ¥16,768,805 to ¥16,241,993 suggests weak bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the ¥16,241,993 low to the ¥16,768,805 high include ¥16,432,427 (23.6%), ¥16,546,526 (38.2%), and ¥16,640,415 (50%). Price is currently approaching the 50% level. A break above ¥16,640,415 could test the 61.8% retracement at ¥16,734,744 before facing resistance at the prior high. A reversal below ¥16,546,526 may open the door to a test of ¥16,432,427 again.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a breakout entry above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at ¥16,640,415, combined with a bullish MACD crossover and volume confirmation. A stop-loss could be placed just below ¥16,546,526, and a target set at ¥16,734,744. Alternatively, a short entry could be triggered if BTCJPY closes below ¥16,546,526 with a bearish MACD divergence and high volume. This approach would test the viability of using Fibonacci and MACD signals in high-volatility environments.