Market Overview: Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) 24-Hour Analysis

• Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) closed at 17,150,247 JPY, down from the 12:00 ET-1 open of 17,206,905 JPY.
• Price formed a bearish broadening pattern, with key resistance at 17,213,929 JPY and support at 17,156,587 JPY.
• RSI entered oversold territory near the session close, suggesting potential near-term rebound.
• Volatility remained elevated, with Bollinger Bands widening on the 15-minute chart.
• Notional turnover totaled ¥11,805,563,488, with volume clustering near key reversal zones late in the session.

At 12:00 ET-1 on September 20, 2025, BTCJPY opened at 17,206,905 JPY and closed at 17,150,247 JPY by 12:00 ET on September 21. The pair reached a high of 17,213,929 JPY and a low of 17,135,133 JPY over the course of the day. The total volume traded was 11.35 BTC, with a notional turnover of ¥11,805,563,488. The price action suggests a bearish shift in sentiment, with buyers struggling to reclaim key levels above 17,200,000 JPY.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a broadening top forming between 17,213,929 JPY and 17,156,587 JPY, indicating increased volatility and indecision. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 19:00 ET on September 20, confirming a shift in momentum to the downside. A key support level is now at 17,156,587 JPY, with a potential short-term rebound likely if this level holds. A failure below 17,156,587 JPY could trigger a test of the next support at 17,135,133 JPY, where a bullish reversal candle appears to have formed earlier in the session.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have crossed below the price, forming a bearish death cross. This reinforces the short-term downward trend. The 50-period MA sits at 17,170,000 JPY, and the 20-period MA at 17,185,000 JPY. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, indicating a more neutral stance over the longer term, though this could shift if the daily close remains below 17,200,000 JPY.

MACD has turned negative, with the histogram showing a bearish divergence as price declined while the indicator remained flat, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. The RSI dropped to oversold levels near 30 during the final hour of the session, hinting at potential short-term buying interest. However, this may not be enough to reverse the overall trend without a breakout above the 17,170,000 JPY level.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands have expanded throughout the session, reflecting heightened volatility. Price has traded within the lower half of the bands for most of the 24-hour window, with a brief excursion into the upper band around 06:15 ET on September 21. This suggests that sellers are dominating the price action. The most recent contraction occurred around 04:45 ET, which may signal a potential reversal. However, buyers have not yet shown enough strength to push the price back into the upper band.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked significantly around the 19:00 and 23:15 ET timeframes, coinciding with sharp declines in price. These spikes were accompanied by notable increases in turnover, confirming bearish pressure. A divergence between price and volume emerged around 08:30 ET, where the price continued to fall despite a drop in volume, suggesting exhaustion among sellers. However, the high turnover during the late ET session indicates that bearish momentum is still strong.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price has retraced approximately 61.8% of the downward move from 17,213,929 JPY to 17,156,587 JPY, currently resting at 17,170,000 JPY. This area has acted as a resistance level in the last few hours. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at 17,180,000 JPY appears to be acting as a key support, and a break below this could signal further bearish continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and the alignment of key technical indicators—such as bearish MACD divergence, a bearish death cross on moving averages, and oversold RSI—this session may provide a suitable entry setup for a short-term bearish strategy. A potential entry could be triggered upon a close below the 17,156,587 JPY support level, with a stop loss placed just above 17,170,000 JPY. A target could be set at 17,135,133 JPY, based on Fibonacci retracement levels and prior support. This strategy would aim to capture continuation of the bearish trend, using the confluence of momentum and structure as confirmation.