Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) – 2025-11-05

Summary
• BTCJPY traded in a tight range early, then broke down sharply before recovering in late ET hours.
• Key 15-minute patterns include a bearish engulfing and a bullish harami, suggesting indecision.
• Volume surged during the low point near 15192241, but failed to confirm a strong bearish move.

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at 15784608 on 2025-11-04 at 17:00 ET, hit a high of 15806111 and a low of 15182152, and closed at 15663924 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. Total 24-hour volume was 204.21 BTC and turnover was ¥31,236,872,521. The price action reflects a volatile day, with sharp intraday swings and a final close near mid-range.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period reveals a clear bearish breakdown and subsequent retest. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 15182152, confirming a short-term reversal. However, a later bullish harami near 15426140 suggests buyers have re-entered. Key support levels formed at 15182152 and 15224258, while resistance appears at 15426140 and 15663924.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price spent much of the session below the 20 and 50-period SMAs, indicating bearish momentum earlier in the day. By the end of the period, price closed above both moving averages, hinting at a possible near-term reversal. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 MA lines are closely aligned near the 15500000–15600000 range, suggesting consolidation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory during the midday selloff, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30 during the low, signaling oversold conditions that likely attracted buyers. By the end of the 24-hour period, both MACD and RSI had rebounded, indicating a potential near-term pause in the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the selloff, pushing price toward the lower band. Price later retested the upper band but failed to break through, suggesting a lack of conviction. The Bollinger Band width has since widened, reflecting increased uncertainty in the market.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the low at 15192241, with 10.209125 BTC traded. However, this did not translate into a sustained bearish move, suggesting potential distribution or stop-loss triggering. Turnover also spiked during this period, but volume and price did not align in a strong bearish confirmation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15806111 (high) to 15182152 (low) move shows key levels at 15395099 (61.8%) and 15573635 (38.2%). Price found initial support at the 61.8% level but failed to hold the 38.2% level. On the 15-minute chart, the most recent swing from 15663924 to 15426140 has a 61.8% retest at 15570716, which may serve as near-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A historical backtest of the bearish engulfing pattern on BTCJPY from 2022 to 2025 showed a positive return of +15.44%, with an annualized return of 6.29% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.81. The average return per trade was +1.00%, suggesting that the pattern may offer a consistent short-term bearish edge, especially in a range-bound market like the one observed today. The low drawdown of 3.68% also indicates relatively controlled risk in the absence of additional stop-loss measures. Given today’s bearish engulfing pattern, a similar approach may provide a viable strategy for traders.