Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) - 2025-10-11

• Price fell from ¥18.2M to ¥17.3M in 6 hours, then consolidated near ¥17.1M.
• Momentum weakened with RSI below 50 and declining volume.
• Bollinger Band contraction suggests potential for volatility expansion.
• 61.8% Fibonacci level at ¥17.04M aligns with key support.
• Strong selling pressure seen around ¥17.6M and ¥17.9M.

Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) opened at ¥18,127,694 at 12:00 ET–1, hit a high of ¥18,209,594 and a low of ¥16,810,000, closing at ¥17,143,396 at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded was 198.88 BTC and total turnover reached ¥3,298,594,959. The pair exhibited a strong bearish bias over the past 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a significant bearish trend over the 24-hour period, with a sharp sell-off from ¥18.2M to ¥17.3M. A large bearish candle on 21:30–21:45 ET suggested strong selling pressure, followed by a consolidation phase. A potential support zone emerged around ¥17.0M–17.1M, marked by several small bullish and indecision candles. A doji formed around ¥17.1M near the close, signaling potential exhaustion in the downside.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have trended downward, indicating bearish momentum. Price has been below both lines for most of the 24-hour window. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is significantly above the 200-period line, suggesting a long-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below the signal line for most of the 24 hours, confirming the bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 50 and approached oversold territory, suggesting the price may consolidate or even see a minor pullback. However, the lack of significant volume during this RSI drop suggests limited buying interest.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the major sell-off hours (19:30–22:30 ET), with a large turnover in BTCJPY at ¥17.3M–17.1M. However, the volume during the consolidation phase (00:00–11:30 ET) was relatively low, indicating weak follow-through selling. A divergence between price and volume during the pullback suggests limited conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key Fibonacci levels on the 24-hour move from ¥18.2M to ¥17.3M are ¥17.55M (38.2%), ¥17.43M (50%), and ¥17.04M (61.8%). The price consolidated near the 61.8% level, which aligns with a potential support zone. Further downward movement would need to break through ¥16.8M for deeper bearish confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on short entries triggered by bearish engulfing patterns and RSI below 40, with a stop-loss at the nearest bullish divergence or Fibonacci resistance. This approach could be optimized using the 20-period moving average as a trend filter. Given the current price near 61.8% Fib and a bearish MACD, such a setup may provide high-probability short-term signals.