Market Overview for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) on 2025-09-10

• BTCJPY surged 6.5% over 24 hours, closing near the session high amid rising volume and strong momentum.
• RSI (14) and MACD confirmed bullish momentum, while volatility expanded as price moved above key 15-min resistance levels.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near 16,333,959 Yen, suggesting potential continuation in favor of buyers.
• Notional turnover spiked during the final 6 hours, aligning with higher highs and confirming sustained bullish sentiment.

The 24-hour session for Bitcoin/Yen (BTCJPY) saw significant upside momentum, with the pair opening at 16,361,140 Yen and closing at 16,590,579 Yen by 12:00 ET. The high reached 16,748,388 Yen, and the low hit 16,333,959 Yen, reflecting a volatile but directional move. Total volume traded across 96 15-minute candles was 46.38 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 7,599,672,600 Yen (calculated from volume × average close price).

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were observed near 16,333,959 and 16,421,764 Yen, with a strong bullish engulfing pattern forming in early morning ET as price retested the session low. Resistance levels emerged at 16,421,764 and 16,637,150 Yen, with the latter acting as a temporary ceiling before a breakout in the afternoon. A doji formed at the 16,637,150 level during a consolidation phase, indicating indecision before a breakout.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed above the price level at 16,500,000 Yen, indicating strong short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period MAs are converging, with the 200-period MA acting as a long-term support level. Price remains well above all three lines, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed above the signal line during the early session, with the histogram showing increasing positive divergence. RSI (14) surged from 38 to 78 by the end of the session, signaling overbought conditions and suggesting a potential pause or consolidation in the short term. However, the momentum remains strong enough to suggest continued upward bias.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the last 8 hours, pushing price to the upper Bollinger Band multiple times, indicating aggressive buying pressure. The band width was at its widest since the session began, reflecting a breakout phase. The price closed near the upper band, suggesting continued bullish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Notional turnover increased significantly between 02:30 ET and 08:30 ET, aligning with a breakout above 16,637,150 Yen. Volume remained above average throughout the session, with no signs of divergence between price and volume. The final 15-minute candle saw a volume spike of 1.09 BTC, confirming the strong bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels were drawn from the swing low at 16,333,959 Yen to the swing high at 16,748,388 Yen. The 50% retracement level (16,541,173.5 Yen) was tested and broken to the upside, with the 61.8% level at 16,640,170 Yen acting as a short-term resistance. Price closed just below 16,650,000 Yen, suggesting a potential pause at the 61.8% level in the next session.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed bullish breakout above 16,637,150 Yen and the strong MACD and RSI readings suggest a backtesting strategy could be built around short-term breakout and continuation setups. A potential rule-based backtest could look for bullish engulfing patterns forming near key support levels, followed by a close above the upper Bollinger Band and a confirmation of the breakout through volume spikes. If the price then holds above the 50-period MA and the RSI remains above 50, a long position could be triggered. The target would be the 61.8% Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss placed just below the 50% retracement level to mitigate downside risk. This strategy aligns with the observed structure and would benefit from the current bullish momentum.