Market Overview for Bitcoin/Tether USDt (BTCUSDT) - 2025-09-06

• Bitcoin/Tether USDt tested key support around $110,600 before rebounding
• 24-hour volume spiked during late ET hours, confirming bearish breakdowns
• RSI and MACD signals suggest short-term oversold conditions with potential for consolidation
• Volatility increased as seen in wide Bollinger Band expansion during mid-ET session
• Fibonacci levels at $110,675 and $110,350 appear to anchor near-term price behavior

BTCUSDT opened at $110,894.00 on 2025-09-05 12:00 ET and closed at $110,781.02 on 2025-09-06 12:00 ET, with a high of $111,699.99 and a low of $110,323.35 during the period. Total traded volume amounted to 3,692.83 BTC, with a notional turnover of $405,254,620.00 across 15-minute candles in the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period formed a bearish continuation pattern following a mid-ET breakdown from a prior consolidation range. A key support zone between $110,600–$110,700 showed resilience, with several candles closing near those levels after sharp declines. Notable doji occurred around $110,800 and $110,750, suggesting indecision between buyers and sellers. The formation of a bearish engulfing pattern in late ET hours confirmed the breakdown and added weight to the recent bearish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs formed a bearish crossover just before 20:00 ET, reinforcing the short-term downward bias. The price closed below both averages at the end of the period, signaling ongoing bearish control. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period SMAs have diverged, with the 50 SMA continuing to lag behind the 100 SMA, pointing to a potential continuation of the bearish trend unless a strong reversal occurs in the next 48 hours.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed below the signal line late ET, forming a bearish divergence from the price action. The histogram has remained negative for most of the session, indicating sustained bearish momentum. RSI reached an oversold condition below 30 for brief periods but did not trigger a meaningful bullish bounce, hinting that the downside could continue. RSI divergence at $110,650 suggests some short-term overselling, though bearish bias remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the mid-ET breakdown, with price hitting the lower band multiple times. This expansion reflects increased volatility and a heightened probability of continued consolidation or a reversal at the lower band. The bands have since narrowed slightly, suggesting a potential pause in volatility, though the price remains near the lower band, favoring bearish continuation unless a breakout occurs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown phase, especially around 21:30 ET and 04:15 ET, confirming bearish momentum during critical price levels. Turnover also rose sharply in those periods, validating the volume increase. However, volume has decreased in the past few hours, suggesting that the bears may be running out of steam or that market participants are waiting for a new catalyst. The lack of volume during recent price recoveries indicates weak bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high of $111,700 to the low of $110,350 show key levels at $110,675 (38.2%) and $110,350 (61.8%). The price currently hovers near $110,675, where it may find a temporary floor. A break below $110,675 could target $110,350. On the 15-minute chart, Fibonacci levels from earlier intraday moves are overlapping with key support and resistance clusters, suggesting that the next major move could be either a continuation or a reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy involving a combination of RSI divergence and Bollinger Band breakouts could offer insights into short-term directional bias. For example, if RSI shows oversold divergence near a lower Bollinger Band, a long entry on a breakout above the band could be triggered. Conversely, bearish setups would involve RSI overbought conditions and a breakdown below the upper band. This approach aligns with the recent price behavior, particularly during the mid-ET breakdown when RSI showed weak bearish momentum and volume confirmed the move. Given current levels, such a strategy would favor short-term bearish entries or consolidation-based trades.