Market Overview for Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) recorded a 24-hour low of $102,000.00 and closed at $112,280.01 after significant bearish consolidation.
• Momentum indicators showed clear overbought conditions early in the session, followed by oversold readings in the final hours.
• A sharp volume spike and price drop occurred between 19:15–21:15 ET, signaling key distribution.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the drop to $108,971.1, indicating high volatility.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged near session close, suggesting potential near-term support.

Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) opened at $119,226.8 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $112,280.01 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was $102,000.00, and the high was $119,590.40. Total volume was 63,962.99 BTC, and total notional turnover was approximately $6,901,800,000.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a clear bearish trend with a notable breakdown below the $113,000 level. A large bearish engulfing candle emerged around the session close, indicating rejection near the $112,000 support. A bullish doji appeared briefly in late ET hours, hinting at potential short-term equilibrium. Key support levels appear to be at $111,500 and $109,500, while resistance is found at $114,000 and $116,000.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly, confirming the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below the 200-period MA, reinforcing a longer-term bearish bias. Price currently sits below both 50 and 100-period MAs, suggesting bearish continuation is likely.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram remained negative for most of the session, confirming bearish momentum, while the RSI reached oversold territory below 30 near the close. This suggests a possible near-term reversal from the $112,000 level. However, divergence between the RSI and price during the afternoon ET suggests caution in relying solely on overbought/oversold readings.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened during the price collapse between 19:15–21:15 ET, with price hitting the lower band at $108,971.1. This indicated high volatility and possible distribution. In the final hours, price bounced off the lower band and retraced toward the middle band, suggesting short-term mean reversion.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred around 19:15 ET with a volume of 10,063.12 BTC and a turnover of approximately $1,126,600,000. Price fell sharply during this period, indicating strong distribution. The final 15 minutes showed a volume increase of 30% compared to the session average, supporting the bullish engulfing pattern. No notable price-volume divergence was observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels for the major 15-minute swing from $119,590.40 to $102,000.00 showed price finding support at the 61.8% level ($111,880) and the 38.2% level ($114,620). On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the larger move aligns with the $109,500 level, which appears to be a key psychological support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern near the close, combined with RSI oversold readings and price testing the 61.8% Fibonacci level, may present a high-probability entry for a short-term long trade. A backtest using these signals (entry at close of bullish engulfing, stop loss below the doji low, and target at the 38.2% retracement) would likely yield positive expectancy over the next 4–8 hours, assuming no major macroeconomic shocks. Integrating volume spikes and Bollinger Band expansions could further refine the model.