Market Overview for Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) on 2025-09-26

• Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) declined sharply after a bullish open, closing below the day’s opening price.
• Volatility increased midday with a notable bearish engulfing pattern and a 6.5% drop in price.
• RSI hit oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound, though momentum remains bearish.
• Bollinger Bands show a widening expansion, indicating rising volatility amid declining price.
• Turnover spiked during the selloff, aligning with price action and confirming bearish sentiment.

BTCUSDT opened at $111,215.00 at 12:00 ET – 1, reaching a high of $111,672.33 before declining to a 24-hour low of $108,631.51. The session closed at $109,568.34 at 12:00 ET today. Total volume was 11,717.85 BTC, and notional turnover reached $1.27 billion over the 24-hour period.

The candlestick structure revealed a strong bearish bias with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming from 16:45 to 17:00 ET. This was followed by a 15-minute candle showing a 5.9% price drop from $111,096.0 to $108,654.0, marking the day’s most aggressive selloff. A key support level appears to be forming around $108,631.51, with a potential rebound likely if RSI and volume confirm a reversal.

MACD showed a bearish crossover with a declining histogram, reinforcing the downward momentum. RSI reached 29 by 19:30 ET, signaling an oversold condition, though a bounce is more likely to be corrective than a reversal. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the decline, reflecting heightened volatility. Price settled near the lower band, indicating a test of short-term support, though a break below this may extend the selloff toward the next key Fibonacci level at $107,620.65.

Volume surged during the 17:00 to 19:45 ET window, peaking with a 15-minute turnover of over $65 million during the 17:15 ET print. This supports the bearish move and suggests institutional selling pressure. A key concern is divergence between price and RSI, which could indicate a deeper pullback if not resolved. Over the next 24 hours, a retest of $108,631.51 is expected, with a potential bounce or a break to the downside depending on volume and order flow.

The backtesting strategy under evaluation targets short-term corrections during oversold RSI conditions. It assumes that a 20-period EMA crossing below the 50-period EMA confirms bearish momentum, while RSI below 30 triggers a potential entry into a short position. The stop-loss is set at the nearest 15-minute high, and the take-profit target aligns with the first Fibonacci retracement level of the most recent bullish swing.

Given today’s structure, a trader using this strategy would have entered a short at 18:00 ET when RSI dropped below 30 and the 20-period EMA crossed under the 50-period EMA. The stop-loss would be placed at $109,454.99, and the initial profit target would be $108,631.51. The trade would have yielded a 759-tick move, or about 0.7% profit, assuming no early exits. This strategy performed effectively today, confirming its viability during sharp corrections in a bearish market phase.