Market Overview for Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) on 2025-09-21

• BTC/USDT traded in a tight range, failing to break above 116,000 and testing key support at 115,500.
• Bearish momentum gained strength after 20:00 ET, with declining highs and a breakdown below 116,000.
• Volatility dipped during the Asian session before spiking overnight, with volume clustering in the 115,600–115,900 range.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory near 30, suggesting short-term exhaustion of the selloff.

Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) opened at 116,020.92 at 12:00 ET -1 and closed at 115,603.45 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 116,079.46 and a low of 115,329.03. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 3,425.28 BTC, while notional turnover reached $394,728,859. The price moved within a defined range, showing consolidation before a sharp late-night drop below key psychological levels.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key resistance at 116,000 multiple times during the day, failing to hold above it after 17:00 ET. A large bearish candle at 17:15 ET (high: 116,079.46, low: 115,904.27) signaled a breakdown in bullish momentum. Later in the session, a bearish engulfing pattern formed near 116,000, confirming a shift in sentiment. On the lower end, support was tested at 115,500, with a bear trap forming between 115,500 and 115,600 as volume surged during the breakdown. A doji formed near 115,500, hinting at short-term equilibrium.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is positioned slightly above the 50-period MA, indicating a neutral-to-bullish bias in the short term. However, this is now challenged by the recent bearish momentum. On the daily timeframe, BTC/USDT is trading below both the 50- and 200-period MAs, suggesting bearish alignment for a longer-term outlook.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative after 19:00 ET, with the histogram displaying bearish divergence. The RSI dropped below 30 during the overnight session, suggesting oversold conditions. However, price action did not reverse on the RSI bounce, indicating caution. RSI remains in a bearish phase despite the short-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded overnight, with Bollinger Bands widening as price moved toward the lower band. At the close of the period, BTC/USDT was trading near the lower Bollinger band at 115,500, indicating potential for a bounce or consolidation phase. The narrowing of the bands earlier in the session suggested a period of low volatility before the late-night breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late-night bearish move, particularly at 17:15 ET and 21:45 ET, with large notional turnover confirming the breakdown. Notably, the highest volume occurred during the 17:15–17:30 ET period (116,079.46 to 115,904.27), where the price dropped nearly 1,200 USDT. Volume and turnover aligned with bearish price action, indicating strong conviction in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing high at 116,079.46 and low at 115,329.03, the 38.2% retracement level is at 115,804.29 and the 61.8% level is at 115,523.13. The 61.8% level is now a key area to watch for potential support. The 50% level at 115,704.30 was briefly tested but failed to hold, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves a short-term bearish setup based on the following criteria:
1. A bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart.
2. Price breaking below a 20-period MA.
3. Volume spiking on the bearish move.
4. RSI below 30 and not showing immediate reversal signs.

Applying this strategy to the recent breakdown at 17:15–17:30 ET would have yielded a sell signal. A stop-loss could be placed above the 116,000 level, with a target near the 115,500 support. Historical performance suggests this pattern is successful in volatile conditions when volume confirms the move. The key is to avoid false breakouts by waiting for a close below the pattern’s low and confirming volume surge.