Market Overview for Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) on 2025-09-18

• Bitcoin/Tether (BTCUSDT) traded within a volatile range, closing slightly above its 12:00 ET open with a 24-hour high near $117,843.
• Momentum shifted multiple times with RSI hovering near overbought levels, signaling potential for a near-term pullback.
• A sharp volume surge occurred during the midday spike to $117,655, suggesting strong conviction in the move.
• Bollinger Bands reflected tight contractions in early hours, followed by a sharp expansion aligning with the price surge.
• Notable bearish divergence emerged in the late afternoon on volume and price, suggesting caution for near-term buyers.

At 12:00 ET − 1, BTCUSDT opened at $115,789.39, reached a high of $117,843.83, and closed at $117,583.56 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading range reflected high volatility, with a total trading volume of 11,214.55 BTC and a notional turnover of approximately $1.33 billion, based on aggregated 15-minute intervals.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a bullish breakout from a key support zone at $115,600 during the afternoon hours. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 20:45 ET, followed by a consolidation phase through the overnight session. Later in the day, a bearish divergence appeared with a strong rejection at the $117,600–$117,800 area, forming a potential overhead resistance. A doji at $117,583.56 suggested indecision among buyers, indicating a potential pause in the upward momentum.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in bullish alignment, with the price holding above both. The MACD showed a positive divergence midday, reinforcing the bullish setup, but the RSI hit overbought levels (above 70) multiple times, indicating the potential for a near-term correction. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) remain in bullish order, with price above all, reinforcing the short-term bullish bias.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands contracted sharply between 18:00 and 19:00 ET before the breakout, signaling a period of low volatility followed by a sharp expansion. Price traded close to the upper band during the late surge, suggesting heightened volatility. Fibonacci retracement levels from the morning low ($115,430) showed price finding resistance at the 61.8% level around $117,560, with a potential target at the 78.6% level around $118,200 should the bullish momentum continue.

Volume & Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked to over 490 BTC in the 3:30 AM − 3:45 AM ET window during the break above $117,500, confirming the strength of the move. However, in the late afternoon, volume declined despite a sharp price drop, indicating weak follow-through from bears. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with a significant increase during the breakout phase, suggesting strong institutional involvement.

Forward Outlook and Risk Caveat

Price appears to be consolidating after the late surge, and if it holds above $117,300, it could signal a continuation of the bullish trend. However, a close below $116,500 may trigger a retest of the earlier support near $115,600. Investors should watch for a potential break of the Bollinger Band lower boundary or a bearish crossover in the MACD for early warning signs of a pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price behavior and technical setup, a backtest could be designed to enter long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern or a break above a key Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 61.8%) on the 15-minute chart, with a stop loss set at the recent swing low. The strategy could target a 3.0%–5.0% profit within the next 4–8 hours, using the MACD histogram and volume as confirmation tools. Testing this strategy across similar volatile cycles would help assess its robustness in high-volatility environments.