Market Overview: Bitcoin/Romanian Leu (BTCRON) on 2025-11-11

• BTCRON posted a 24-hour high of 471,081 RON but closed at 461,424 RON, down from the opening price.
• Price tested multiple resistance levels near 462,075 RON and 465,155 RON with mixed volume confirmation.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions mid-day before a sharp reversal toward the close.
• Volatility expanded during the midday rally, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly.
• Fibonacci retracements aligned with key pullbacks post-peak, suggesting short-term support at 461,000 RON.

BTCRON opened at 461,677 RON on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of 471,081 RON during the 24-hour window. The pair closed at 461,424 RON at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11, down from the prior open. Total 24-hour volume was 0.0158 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 6.8 RON million.

Price tested a key resistance at 462,075 RON multiple times, forming a bearish divergence in RSI and volume. A strong bullish reversal candle emerged at 09:45 ET, with a long lower shadow, suggesting short-term support around 460,000 RON. The 20-period moving average on the 15-min chart crossed above the 50-period line, signaling a temporary bullish bias that reversed by the afternoon.

MACD showed a strong positive divergence mid-day, followed by a bearish crossover late morning. RSI reached overbought levels above 70 during the rally, while the Stochastic indicator showed bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands widened during the midday spike, indicating rising volatility, with price closing below the lower band in the final hours of the session.

The Fibonacci retracement from the high of 471,081 RON to the low of 459,843 RON highlighted potential support levels at 463,200 (38.2%) and 461,000 (61.8%). These levels coincided with the final 15-minute candles of the session, suggesting a potential short-term consolidation or reversal.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-min chart crossed positively mid-morning, reinforcing a temporary bullish bias. RSI and MACD confirmed overbought conditions, while the Stochastic oscillator showed bearish divergence, suggesting the momentum was likely to reverse. Bollinger Bands expanded with the rally, narrowing again as price corrected in the final hours.

Backtest Hypothesis
To evaluate the effectiveness of resistance level testing, a structured backtest strategy could be developed using the 462,075 RON level as a key threshold. A potential setup would trigger on days where price closes above this level, with the assumption of a short-term continuation. Conversely, a bearish signal may be tested on days where price closes below with increasing volume. The backtest would assess entry, exit, and stop-loss rules based on Fibonacci levels and RSI divergence, with a ±N-day performance window to measure average return, win rate, and drawdowns.