Market Overview for Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) – October 10, 2025

• Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) traded in a volatile 24-hour range, opening at 2,228,264 MXN and closing near 2,211,782 MXN.
• A sharp sell-off in the early hours led to a 2.6% drawdown before a late-day rally capped near 2,242,424 MXN.
• Volume surged during the afternoon sell-off, with the 15-minute candle on 15:30 ET printing 60,324 MXN in turnover.
• RSI showed overbought conditions briefly before a reversal and entered oversold territory toward the close.
• A bearish engulfing pattern and a falling wedge structure emerged, suggesting short-term bearish potential.

Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at 2,228,264 MXN at 12:00 ET on October 9, reached a high of 2,254,041 MXN, and closed at 2,211,782 MXN at 12:00 ET on October 10. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1.726 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 3,794,951,142 MXN. Price action featured sharp intraday swings and a late-session rally failed to sustain the prior high, hinting at potential bearish exhaustion.

Structure & Formations

Key intraday support emerged near 2,200,000 MXN during the 15:00–16:00 ET range, with price finding a bottom at 2,200,432 MXN before a rebound. Resistance levels were tested at 2,230,000 MXN and 2,250,000 MXN, where multiple candlestick closes showed rejection. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 14:00 ET, while a doji formed at 09:00 ET, indicating indecision. A falling wedge structure is evident, with a target of 2,195,000 MXN as a potential near-term support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, BTCMXN traded below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, suggesting short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is currently at 2,235,000 MXN, while the 200-period MA sits at 2,220,000 MXN. The price has closed below the 50-MA for two consecutive sessions, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early hours, forming a bearish crossover that held through most of the session. The RSI dipped below 30 in the final hours, signaling oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a strong rebound, suggesting bearish exhaustion or a potential continuation of the downtrend. Momentum indicators thus remain cautious for near-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was elevated during the 14:00–16:00 ET window, with the bands expanding as price swung between 2,200,000 and 2,254,000 MXN. BTCMXN closed near the lower band at 2,211,782 MXN, indicating oversold territory and potentially setting the stage for a bounce or consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 15:30–16:00 ET hour, with a 15-minute candle showing 0.060324 BTC traded at an average price of 2,208,733 MXN. Turnover during this period was 133,204,819 MXN, a 4.5x increase from the previous hour. Despite the sharp sell-off, price and volume moved in sync, indicating conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 2,254,041 MXN (high) to 2,200,432 MXN (low), the 61.8% level sits at 2,215,000 MXN—close to where price currently resides. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the larger move is near 2,210,000 MXN, suggesting a potential consolidation or bounce could occur around that level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy proposes a mean-reversion approach using RSI and Bollinger Bands. A trade signal is triggered when RSI dips below 30 (oversold) and price touches the lower Bollinger band, suggesting a potential bounce. A stop-loss is placed 2% below the entry price, and a target is set at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 38.2% or 50%). Given BTCMXN’s current position near the lower band and RSI below 30, this strategy could signal a short-term entry for a bullish bias. However, the bearish wedge and bearish engulfing pattern may counter this, suggesting caution and the use of tight stop-loss levels. The strategy performs best in ranging environments and may face challenges during strong trend phases like the current bearish momentum.