Market Overview for Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) – 2025-10-07

• Bitcoin/Mexican Peso declines sharply, closing 24 hours near $2.29M after hitting $2.31M.
• Volatility expands in early hours, but wanes as price consolidates below key resistance.
• Volume surges during early bearish break, but turnover confirms weakness in later sessions.
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum, with price near lower Bollinger Band.
• Fibonacci retracement at 61.8% suggests possible near-term support level ahead.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-06, Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at $2,302,689 and closed at $2,289,826 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-07. The 24-hour high was $2,309,855, while the low reached $2,260,336. Total volume traded over the period was 2.788 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately $6,545,200 MXN.

The price action over the 24-hour period was marked by a distinct bearish bias. Starting from a relatively firm open, the pair fell into a sustained downtrend by the early hours of the session, punctuated by a large bearish candle at 06:45 ET–1 that confirmed a breakdown below key psychological levels. Support was tested at multiple Fibonacci retracements, most notably the 61.8% level near $2,274,000, which appeared to temporarily absorb further selling. Resistance levels, particularly around $2,300,000 and $2,310,000, held firm as price bounced off them with bearish conviction.

A notable candlestick pattern emerged at 09:30 ET, where a bullish hammer suggested a potential reversal. However, the pattern lacked follow-through and failed to break above the 15-minute 20-period EMA, which had shifted downward into a bearish alignment. The 50-period moving average was also bearish, crossing below the 20-period line and reinforcing the downtrend. Volatility expanded in the early morning hours before contracting, indicating a waning in aggressive bearish momentum.

The MACD was negative and trending downward, supporting the bearish bias, while the RSI remained in oversold territory for several hours, suggesting a possible short-term bounce. Bollinger Bands showed a slight contraction, indicating a potential period of consolidation. However, price sat near the lower band, hinting at a possible near-term test of key support levels.

Looking ahead, the immediate focus remains on the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $2,274,000 and the lower Bollinger Band. A break below this may expose deeper support near $2,260,000. Investors should watch for a reversal candlestick or a rejection above $2,290,000, as a failure to do so could extend the bearish phase. However, traders should remain cautious as volatility remains low and volume is not confirming a strong directional bias.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy involves entering short positions upon the formation of a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern and a close below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart. Exit triggers are set at either a stop-loss at 1.5% above the entry price or a target at the nearest Fibonacci support level (typically 61.8%). Given the recent price action, this strategy would have entered short positions multiple times over the 24-hour window, particularly around the 17:30 and 20:00 ET–1 timeframes. Backtesting would aim to assess win rate, risk-reward ratio, and drawdown under similar market conditions, with an emphasis on the strategy’s effectiveness in a volatile, bear-dominant environment.