Market Overview for Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN): 2025-09-24

• BTCMXN dropped to a 24-hour low of 2,055,189 MXN after forming a bearish engulfing pattern mid-day.
• Volatility expanded in late ET hours, with Bollinger Bands widening and price moving closer to the lower band.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions near 20, but volume failed to confirm a strong reversal.
• Late rally pushed price up over 40,000 MXN ahead of the 12:00 ET close, showing fragmented buyer interest.
• Turnover surged in the final hour as price neared 2,090,000 MXN, signaling short-term consolidation risk.

Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at 2,077,428 MXN on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET and closed at 2,082,839 MXN on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 2,099,765 MXN and a low of 2,049,955 MXN. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 0.76389 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 163,401,728 MXN.

The price action showed a distinct bearish bias from the morning until mid-afternoon, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming around 17:45 ET. A key support level appeared to form at 2,055,189 MXN following a consolidation phase. A 20-period EMA was below the 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, indicating bearish momentum, but both were trending upward by the close. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period EMAs were tightly clustered near 2,075,000 MXN, suggesting potential convergence support or resistance.

MACD crossed below the signal line mid-day, confirming bearish momentum, and RSI moved into oversold territory near 20 before a late rally pushed it back toward neutral levels. Volatility expanded as the day wore on, with Bollinger Bands widening and price settling near the lower band during the mid-day selloff. However, a late rebound pulled price back toward the middle band by the close. Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart showed price testing the 61.8% retracement level at 2,065,000 MXN, but failed to hold it before bouncing back.

The late surge in buying interest around 15:00–16:00 ET pushed price over 2,090,000 MXN for the first time since midday, with volume surging to support the move. However, the lack of follow-through suggests the rally may be short-lived. Price appears to be consolidating in a narrow range as the 24-hour period closes, with key resistance near 2,098,000 MXN and support near 2,082,000 MXN. Traders may watch for a breakout or breakdown in the next 24 hours, but caution is advised due to the fragmented volume profile and lack of clear directional bias.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves a 15-minute timeframe crossover of the 20-period and 50-period EMA. A long signal is triggered when the 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA (bullish crossover), and a short signal is triggered when the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA (bearish crossover). Stop-loss and take-profit levels are set using Bollinger Bands and recent Fibonacci retracement levels. This strategy aligns with the observed late-day 20-EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart, which supported a short-term bullish bias. The late rally suggests the strategy could have captured the last 24,000 MXN of the upmove, though execution would depend on timing and volatility.