Market Overview: Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) traded in a narrow range today, with limited volatility and muted volume.
• Key support held near 4,912,976 UAH, preventing a deeper pullback during the midday U.S. session.
• A bullish reversal candle emerged at the 07:30–07:45 window, but was quickly erased by selling pressure.
• RSI remains neutral, suggesting balanced buying and selling pressure in the short term.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed in the final hours, indicating a potential for a breakout or fade in the near term.

The 24-hour period for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4,919,720 UAH and traded between 4,903,265 and 4,946,816 UAH, closing at 4,926,224 UAH. Total trading volume for BTC was 0.0504 BTC, translating to a turnover of approximately 246,716,890 UAH. Price action was largely corrective, with multiple attempts to regain momentum failing against key resistance levels.

Structure and formations show a consistent struggle between buyers and sellers, particularly during the late European and early U.S. session. A bearish reversal pattern was confirmed at the 18:15–18:45 window, where BTCUAH dropped sharply from 4,927,338 UAH to 4,912,976 UAH. This was followed by a consolidation phase until 07:30, when a bullish candle emerged, though it lacked follow-through and was quickly undone by a new bearish bar. The formation suggests indecision and a potential need for a catalyst to break the range.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show BTCUAH hovering just below the 20-period line, with the 50-period line slightly higher. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 100-day lines are converging, suggesting a potential inflection point if price can break above 4,946,816 UAH, the 24-hour high. This could signal a short-term reversal in trend, especially if the 200-day line is also pierced.

Macd and RSI readings remain in neutral territory, with RSI fluctuating between 45 and 55, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. MACD remains flat, with the histogram showing no significant momentum shifts. Bollinger Bands have been contracting in the final hours, particularly between 14:00 and 16:00, suggesting a potential breakout or consolidation phase. Price is currently trading near the midband, with no clear direction yet.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 15-minute swing from 4,912,976 to 4,946,816 UAH show BTCUAH currently trading near the 50% level (4,929,894 UAH), a key psychological and technical level. A close above this level would target the 61.8% level at 4,941,077 UAH, whereas a retest of the 38.2% level at 4,919,174 UAH could offer a short-term support scenario.

Volume and turnover were both muted for most of the day, with only two spikes occurring during the 18:15–18:45 and 07:30–07:45 windows. These correspond to the bearish and bullish reversal candles mentioned earlier. However, the lack of sustained volume suggests neither breakout attempt was confirmed. A further test of these levels may require a significant increase in participation to signal conviction.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described strategy aims to capture short-term mean reversion using Fibonacci retracements and RSI as entry triggers. Applying this to BTCUAH’s 15-minute chart, a long entry could have been triggered near the 50% retracement level at 4,929,894 UAH when RSI dipped below 50, indicating oversold conditions. A stop-loss at 4,912,976 UAH would protect against further downside. The target would be the 61.8% retracement at 4,941,077 UAH. If tested in the next 24 hours, the trade could confirm or reject the strategy’s viability in a low-volatility, range-bound environment like the one observed today.