Market Overview: Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) 24-Hour Summary

• BTCUAH experienced a bearish consolidation from 4,769,815 to 4,655,000 over the 24-hour period.
• Key support at 4,660,000 held briefly, but failed to reverse the downward drift.
• Volume spiked during early liquidation hours (17:30–19:30 ET-1), indicating significant selling pressure.
• RSI and MACD show weakening momentum, suggesting potential for further downside in the near-term.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility with price near the lower band, favoring bearish bias.

Price Overview and Market Context

The Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) pair opened at 4,769,815 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 4,661,838 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The 24-hour range saw a high of 4,769,815 and a low of 4,655,000, a sharp bearish trend over the period. Total trading volume across the 24-hour window was approximately 0.135 BTC, with a notional turnover of around 63.3 million UAH. The pair has shown consistent bearish pressure, especially during early ET-1 hours, with multiple bearish reversals forming in the late afternoon.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the 24-hour period formed a strong bearish bias, with several key bearish patterns emerging. The most notable include a large bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart between 17:30 and 18:00 ET-1, followed by a series of lower highs and lower closes. A potential key support at the 4,660,000 level briefly held but failed to reverse the trend. A deep bearish flag pattern developed after 20:00 ET-1, indicating exhaustion in the short-term bull case and reinforcing the bearish momentum.

Support and Resistance Levels

Key support levels include 4,655,000, 4,660,000, and 4,670,000, which have been tested multiple times during the session. Resistance levels include 4,685,000 and 4,695,000, which have failed to hold amid strong bearish pressure. A critical area to watch is the 4,660,000 level, which may serve as either a floor or a pivot depending on the next 24-hour action.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the price closing below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming a bearish bias in the short-term. The 50-period moving average is at 4,687,000, while the 20-period line is at 4,691,000. The 100-period and 200-period daily moving averages are also bearish, with the 200-period line at 4,710,000, suggesting that the pair remains in a longer-term bearish trend.

MACD and RSI

The MACD line has turned negative and is below the signal line, signaling weakening momentum and a bearish trend continuation. The RSI is currently at 34, indicating oversold conditions but not extreme enough to warrant a strong reversal play. It suggests that a rebound may be imminent but remains within a bearish context. The divergence between price and RSI appears weak, and the pair is still trending lower despite occasional rebounds.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a moderate volatility contraction in the morning before expanding as the price moved lower. The price remains near the lower band, which is currently at 4,655,000. The narrowing of the bands in the early part of the session suggests a potential breakout or breakdown scenario, with the recent breakdown confirming the bearish bias. The pair is now trading in a wide band, indicating higher volatility and increased risk of further downside.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked between 17:30 and 19:30 ET-1, coinciding with the sharp decline in price. This suggests significant selling pressure and a potential wave of liquidation. Turnover increased during this time, confirming the strength of the bearish move. There is a moderate divergence in the final hours as volume decreases, which may suggest a temporary pause in the trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the recent swing from 4,769,815 to 4,655,000 show that the price has found a temporary floor near the 61.8% level at 4,665,000. The 38.2% retracement is at 4,694,000, which has already been rejected. The 50% level at 4,688,000 may serve as a pivot point in the near term, with a potential test expected if the price stabilizes.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish bias and the confirmed breakdown of key support levels, a backtesting strategy focused on short entries at key Fibonacci retracement levels could be viable. Specifically, entries could be initiated at the 61.8% level (4,665,000) with a stop above the 38.2% level (4,694,000). The target would be a continuation of the trend to the next Fibonacci level or below. This aligns with the observed MACD divergence and the bearish engulfing patterns seen during the consolidation phase. A successful execution of this strategy would require low volatility and confirmation through volume confirmation at key levels.