Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price action saw a 6.1% recovery from the day's low to close near a 24-hour high.
• RSI crossed into overbought territory, indicating potential short-term momentum exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the upper band, highlighting increased volatility and bullish pressure.
• Volume spiked during the final 4.5 hours, aligning with price strength but showing no divergences.
• A key resistance at 4,874,260 UAH appears broken and may now act as support.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11, Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened at 4,889,366 UAH, hit a low of 4,844,188 UAH, and closed at 4,874,261 UAH. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 0.0791 BTC, with a notional turnover of 390,138,894 UAH.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a sharp recovery from a 24-hour low of 4,844,188 UAH, closing near the session high. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 18:30–19:00 ET, followed by a consolidation phase. A key resistance at 4,874,260 UAH has now been breached and may act as a near-term support level. A doji at 03:30–03:45 ET and 04:15–04:30 ET hinted at indecision but were followed by a decisive upward move.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bullish, with price above both. The 50-period MA crossed above the 20-period MA earlier in the session, confirming a short-term uptrend. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA remains a critical long-term reference point and could serve as a pivot for further analysis. The RSI reached 72 by the close, suggesting overbought conditions, while the MACD crossed above the signal line early in the day, reinforcing bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the late trading hours, indicating heightened volatility. Price closed near the upper band, a sign of strong upward momentum but also a potential reversal trigger. A contraction in the bands was observed early in the session but failed to produce a meaningful reversal, instead leading to a breakout. This expansion could suggest a continuation of bullish sentiment in the near term.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked to 0.00234 BTC during the 14:30–14:45 ET session, followed by a sharp reversal. The largest turnover occurred during the 14:00–14:15 ET and 15:00–15:15 ET sessions, which coincided with the most significant price swings. Notably, price and volume aligned in the final 4.5 hours, confirming the strength of the rally. No divergence between price and volume was observed, which supports the continuation of the current trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the low at 4,844,188 UAH to the high at 4,890,059 UAH sits at 4,872,640 UAH, where price showed temporary consolidation before surging higher. This suggests that traders may now view 4,872,640 UAH as a key area for further support. The 38.2% level (4,878,100 UAH) also showed brief resistance earlier in the session.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern forming above a 50-period moving average, confirmed by a volume spike and RSI above 50. Exits would occur when the RSI crosses back below 50 or when price breaks the lower Bollinger Band, whichever comes first. This setup would be tested on 15-minute intervals during periods of high volatility, with risk management triggered if price closes below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

Looking ahead, the 24-hour trend appears to favor a continuation of bullish momentum, with a possible retest of 4,874,260 UAH as support and a target near 4,891,611 UAH. However, a failure to hold above 4,864,154 UAH could invite short-term selling pressure. Investors should remain cautious about overbought RSI readings and potential mean reversion within the next 24 hours.