Market Overview for Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) — 2025-10-07 12:00 ET

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Summary
• Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) closed lower at 5,074,336.0 uah after a sharp intraday sell-off from 5,300,000.0 uah.
• Momentum weakened significantly, with RSI below 30 and MACD trending downward.
• Volatility surged during the decline, breaking below key support and testing a new 24-hour low.
• Volume spiked during the breakdown but diverged from price as the asset drifted lower with minimal follow-through.

Price Action Summary

Bitcoin/Hryvnia (BTCUAH) opened the 24-hour period at 5,268,476.0 uah and peaked at 5,300,000.0 uah before plunging to a 24-hour low of 4,985,774.0 uah. The pair closed at 5,074,336.0 uah at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded was approximately 0.303 BTC, while turnover reached roughly 159,455,000.00 uah. The sharp selloff was marked by a bearish engulfing pattern and a breakdown below critical support levels.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a clear bearish bias, with price forming several bearish engulfing and hanging man patterns during the selloff. The breakdown below the 5,260,874.0 uah level marked a key support violation, with the next immediate support lying at 5,142,753.0 uah. A potential bullish reversal may be expected near this level, but current momentum suggests further downside risk.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, price closed well below both the 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sell-off, with price currently sitting at the lower band. A contraction in volatility may precede a short-term reversal, but for now, the trend appears to be intact.

MACD, RSI, and Momentum

The MACD histogram turned sharply negative as the selloff accelerated, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory, currently reading below 30. While this could suggest a short-term bounce, divergence between RSI and price indicates continued bearish momentum. Overbought conditions are not present, but the market appears to be in the early stages of a deeper correction.

Volume & Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked during the initial breakdown, but as price continued to fall, volume failed to confirm the move with follow-through. This divergence suggests that while the move lower is real, the conviction of sellers may be waning. Notional turnover followed a similar trend, with the largest trade block occurring during the initial pullback near 5,221,329.0 uah.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 5,268,476.0 to 5,300,000.0 uah rally, the 38.2% retrace level fell near 5,285,000.0 uah and the 61.8% level near 5,240,000.0 uah. Price broke through both and continued lower. A 61.8% retracement of the 5,300,000.0 to 4,985,774.0 uah move would place a potential bounce near 5,170,000.0 uah, which is close to where RSI is currently signaling oversold conditions.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy is based on a trend-following approach that enters long on a 20-period EMA crossover above the 50-period EMA and exits on the reverse, with additional RSI filters for overbought and oversold conditions. The strategy has historically performed best during high-volatility periods, such as the one observed in BTCUAH today. However, with RSI now in oversold territory and price failing to confirm the downside with volume, the effectiveness of this strategy may be limited in the near term. A reversal trade on a bullish close above 5,142,753.0 uah could be a suitable entry point for a modified version of this strategy.