Market Overview for Bitcoin/Eurite (BTCEURI) - 2025-09-22

• Bitcoin/Eurite (BTCEURI) closed 3.3% lower at 96042.16 EUR after a sharp sell-off from 98567.68 EUR.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dropped below 30, suggesting oversold conditions and potential short-term rebound.
• Volatility expanded through Bollinger Bands, with price closing near the lower band at 96042.16 EUR.
• Volume surged in the 00:00–02:00 ET window, but failed to confirm a sustained reversal above 97500.00 EUR.
• A key support level formed around 95458.34 EUR, tested but not broken during the 09:00–10:00 ET session.

Bitcoin/Eurite (BTCEURI) opened at 98401.00 EUR on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 96042.16 EUR on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 98567.68 EUR and a low of 95458.34 EUR. Total volume traded was 27.57 BTC, and total turnover was approximately 2.64 billion EUR over the 24-hour period.

The market structure for BTCEURI was bearish throughout the session, with the price forming a large bearish engulfing pattern early in the session and a key rejection at the 97500.00 EUR psychological level. A cluster of support formed near 95458.34 EUR, where the price found a temporary floor during the morning trading window. On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages were both in bearish alignment, with the 50-period line crossing below the 20-period line to signal a short-term bearish bias. This convergence may suggest continued downward momentum unless the price manages to close above 97500.00 EUR.

A strong divergence between price and volume was observed after 03:00 ET, with volume tapering off despite continued price declines. This may indicate a loss of seller conviction. The RSI dropped below 30 in the early hours of 09:00 ET, signaling oversold conditions and suggesting that a rebound could be imminent, though not necessarily a reversal of the broader downtrend. The MACD remained bearish, with the histogram widening in the negative territory, reinforcing the idea that bears are in control.

Bollinger Bands were wide and volatility remained elevated throughout the session, with the price consistently closing near or below the lower band. This may indicate that the market is operating in a high-volatility trading range, with potential for a mean-reverting move if buyers step in at support levels. Notably, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 98567.68 EUR high to the 95458.34 EUR low aligned with the 97109.57 EUR level, which was tested during the 06:00–07:00 ET window but failed to hold. The 38.2% level at 96700.00 EUR could become a near-term resistance if the price manages to rally on increased volume.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtesting strategy suggests taking long positions when RSI crosses below 30 and a bullish candle closes above a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, while placing a stop-loss at the 61.8% retracement level. This approach appears well-aligned with the 09:00–10:00 ET window, where a potential oversold bounce might have been triggered. However, the current divergence between volume and price may limit the effectiveness of this strategy in the near term. Given the recent volatility, using Bollinger Bands as a volatility filter may enhance risk management, ensuring that only trades with higher probability are taken during low-volatility conditions.