Market Overview for Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) – 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

• Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) traded in a 24-hour range of 106,330.00–110,067.64 DAI, with a 1.5% increase in price from open to close.
• Momentum shifted mid-day from bearish to bullish, with RSI and MACD showing divergent signals by the end of the period.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 20:00 ET, with a surge in volume and price pushing above key 108,000 DAI resistance.
• Bollinger Bands widened in the final 4 hours, suggesting potential for a breakout or reversal in the near term.

The 24-hour trading session for Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) began at 12:00 ET–1 with an open price of 106,834.65 DAI and closed at 108,266.1 DAI by 12:00 ET today. The price reached an intraday high of 110,067.64 DAI and fell as low as 106,330.00 DAI. Total trading volume was 2.757 BTC, and notional turnover came to 302,891,175 DAI. The price action showed a strong late-day reversal, with aggressive buying pressure evident in the last 6 hours.

The formation suggests a potential bullish pivot after a mid-day bearish pullback. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17:00 ET, indicating short-term bearish momentum. However, a subsequent bullish harami pattern around 21:30 ET suggested consolidation and potential reversal. The price found strong support at 106,800 DAI and later tested 107,500 DAI, which could serve as the next key level if the uptrend continues.

Support and Resistance Levels

The most immediate support level appears to be at 107,500 DAI, where the price found multiple bounces. Resistance is currently at 108,500 DAI, followed by a critical psychological level at 110,000 DAI. A break above 110,000 DAI would signal a stronger bullish case, while a drop below 107,500 DAI could reignite bearish sentiment and lead to further downside to the 106,500 DAI level.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in favor of the bulls, with price above both. The MACD showed a bullish divergence in the last 2 hours, with positive momentum despite the price pulling back. The RSI, which had been in overbought territory briefly, has since pulled back to neutral levels, indicating that the recent rally may have room to continue but with caution for an overbought correction.

Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion after 20:00 ET, indicating increased volatility. The price moved outside the upper band briefly around 01:15 ET, suggesting a potential breakout or continuation pattern. The volatility expansion also aligns with increased volume, indicating strong conviction in the recent upward move.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

The highest volume spike occurred at 01:15 ET, corresponding with the price pushing above 110,000 DAI. This confirmed the breakout with strong institutional or large-cap participation. In contrast, the 17:00 ET bearish engulfing candle had moderate volume, suggesting a less aggressive sell-off compared to the later bullish push. There was a minor divergence in the 19:30–20:00 ET range, where price moved lower but volume remained subdued, hinting at weakening bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing between 106,330 DAI and 110,067 DAI, the 61.8% level is at 108,575 DAI, and the 78.6% level is at 109,700 DAI. These levels may act as short-term resistance targets. On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% retrace level at 107,950 DAI appears to be holding as support. A break above 108,575 DAI could lead to a test of the 109,700 DAI level.

Backtest Hypothesis

In the context of this technical setup, a potential backtest strategy could involve short-selling on bearish engulfing patterns, as observed at 17:00 ET. To implement this strategy effectively, a clear exit rule is needed, such as closing the short at the next day’s close or using a stop-loss of 2% below the entry. A corresponding long-entry strategy could be triggered by the bullish harami or bullish divergence on the MACD. These patterns, if historically profitable, could serve as a robust framework for a mean-reversion or breakout-based strategy.