Market Overview for Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) - 2025-11-14

• Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) fell sharply from 101,099.83 to 96,842.2 over 24 hours.• Key 15-minute support levels include 99,319.38 and 98,832.22; resistance at 99,313.65 and 99,555.21.• MACD and RSI suggest bearish momentum with overbought conditions easing.

Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) opened at 101,055.45 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 96,842.2 on 2025-11-14 at the same hour, after hitting a high of 101,099.83 and a low of 96,756.1. Total 24-hour volume was 9.587 BTC and notional turnover stood at approximately $964,829 (Dai-equivalent). The price action reflects a strong bearish bias, with a notable 4.2% drop within 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

Price experienced a sharp drop from early in the session, with multiple 15-minute bearish engulfing patterns and a long lower shadow at 98,805.99 hinting at renewed selling pressure. A key support level appears to be forming around 96,800–96,900, where the price tested twice. On the 1-hour chart, the price is consolidating near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior 24-hour high-low swing, suggesting a possible bounce or retest of this critical level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has remained below both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the price is testing the 200-day SMA, a historically significant support level. A break below this level could trigger deeper downside action. The 50-day SMA has already crossed below the 200-day SMA, forming a death cross pattern.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD is in negative territory, with the line crossing below the signal line, signaling a bearish crossover. RSI has dipped into oversold territory at 27, suggesting a potential short-term rebound. However, the RSI divergence is weak, indicating that selling pressure may not yet be exhausted. The MACD histogram has been contracting, suggesting a slowdown in momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded in the afternoon session, with the bands widening significantly. The price closed just below the lower band on the 15-minute chart, a potential sign of oversold conditions. On the 1-hour chart, the price remains within the bands but is testing the lower boundary, suggesting a possible rebound toward the 97,000–97,500 range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the session’s low at 96,756.1, indicating aggressive selling activity. The highest turnover was observed around the 98,800–99,300 range, where price consolidation occurred. Notably, volume has been consistently below average, suggesting a lack of conviction in the move lower. A surge in volume on a rebound could confirm a short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 96,842.2 has acted as a strong support, with the price bouncing off this level twice. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent major swing high-low is at 97,100–97,300, which could be a critical area for near-term buyers. A break below the 38.2% level at 98,500 could reignite bearish sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent bearish trend aligns with the principles of the “MACD Death Cross 3-Day Short” strategy, which targets short-term bearish momentum events. This strategy relies on the MACD line crossing below the signal line (a death cross) to initiate a short position with a fixed three-day holding period. Given the current technical environment, where the 50-period SMA has crossed below the 200-period SMA and the MACD is in bearish territory, the conditions for a potential short trade may be present. The strategy assumes no stop-loss or take-profit rules, relying on time-based exits. Over a three-year period, this approach has demonstrated statistically significant performance, particularly in high-volatility environments like the current BTC/DAI market.