Market Overview for Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY)

• BCHJPY saw a sharp 24-hour bullish reversal with a 5.1% rally from 86,688 to 89,923 Yen.
• Momentum strengthened during the session, as RSI surged above 60 and MACD turned positive.
• Volume spiked sharply during the afternoon (ET) with a 25.78+ BCH trade at 04:30 ET pushing price higher.
• Volatility expanded through Bollinger Band widening, signaling a breakout or continuation phase.
• Key resistance appears at 89,923 Yen, with support near 88,345 Yen based on Fibonacci retracements.

The BCHJPY pair opened at 86,688 Yen on October 2, 2025, and surged to a high of 90,086 Yen before closing at 89,923 Yen on October 3, 2025. Total volume reached 189.6 BCH, with a notional turnover of approximately 16.8 billion Yen. The 24-hour period featured a sharp reversal pattern, with a powerful bullish engulfing candle at 04:30 ET indicating a shift in momentum.

Structurally, the price moved through key levels, with resistance at 89,923 and 90,086 Yen, and support at 88,345 and 88,318 Yen. Notable patterns include a bullish engulfing candle at the top of the rally and a long lower shadow at the session’s open, suggesting rejection of lower prices. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both turned upward, with the 50-period MA crossing above the 20-period MA, confirming a bullish bias.

The MACD turned positive during the rally, with a histogram showing increasing bullish momentum. RSI pushed above 60 during the afternoon and remained in overbought territory, suggesting a potential pause or consolidation. Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased, with price testing the upper band and confirming a breakout. The 20-period Bollinger Band high reached 90,086 Yen, aligning with the session’s peak.

Fibonacci retracements from the morning’s key swing low (87,500 Yen) to the afternoon’s high (89,923 Yen) highlighted key levels around 88,760 (38.2%) and 89,200 (50%) Yen. These levels held during pullbacks, with price rebounding off 88,345 Yen (61.8% of the prior rally) and continuing higher. The 89,923 Yen high appears to be a critical short-term ceiling, while the 88,318 Yen low could hold as a pivot support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bullish reversal and confirmation from both momentum indicators and volume spikes, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering long at 88,345 Yen (61.8% Fibonacci level) with a stop-loss below 88,210 Yen and a take-profit at 89,923 Yen. The strategy would rely on the assumption that the breakout from the Bollinger Band and the bullish engulfing pattern would continue to drive price higher, supported by strong volume and RSI divergence. This approach could be tested on historical data for similar setups, particularly during periods of heightened volatility or major news cycles.