Market Overview for Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) on 2025-10-08

• Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) fluctuated between 87,234 and 89,143, with a close near intraday high amid uneven volume.
• Momentum remained mixed as RSI hovered mid-range and MACD showed no clear trend.
• Volatility expanded after 17:00 ET, with a bullish breakout attempt from a consolidation phase.
• Notable divergences in turnover suggest cautious participation during key price moves.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged early in the session, followed by a potential bullish reversal later.

The Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) pair opened at 87,522 and closed at 88,485 within a 24-hour window, reaching an intraday high of 89,143 and a low of 87,234. Total volume traded amounted to 100.3384 BCH, with a notional turnover of 8,828,764.5 Yen. Price action showed choppy consolidation before a breakout attempt in the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

Price found initial resistance around 87,781 and support near 87,610, with a bearish engulfing pattern visible in the early session. A later bullish reversal pattern emerged as the price broke out of a tight consolidation phase around 20:00 ET. A potential descending triangle pattern formed during the first half of the session, but a breakout failed to hold. A key support level appears at 87,234, which held twice, and may serve as a critical area for further bearish movement.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned, suggesting a sideways bias. Price occasionally dipped below the 20-period MA during the late afternoon but recovered before the end of the session. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed above the 100-period MA during the session, signaling a potential bullish bias for the broader trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below the signal line for most of the session, indicating a weak bullish or neutral trend. A small bullish crossover occurred just before the close, hinting at a possible short-term reversal. RSI hovered between 45 and 55, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. A slight divergence was observed in the latter part of the session, with price rising while RSI failed to make higher highs.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the breakout phase, suggesting rising volatility. Price spent much of the session near the middle band, indicating consolidation. A brief move above the upper band occurred at 02:45 ET but failed to hold. The lower band acted as support twice around 87,610 and 87,234, reinforcing their importance as psychological levels.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume remained low during most of the session, with spikes observed around 19:45 ET, 20:00 ET, and 22:30 ET, coinciding with price breakouts or reversals. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern but showed a divergence at 20:00 ET when price surged but turnover remained muted. The most significant volume occurred in the final hours of the session, particularly between 09:00 ET and 10:30 ET, confirming bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 87,234 to 89,143, the 38.2% retracement level at 88,400 aligns with the closing price, suggesting a potential pause in upward momentum. The 61.8% level at 88,070 may serve as a short-term support area if the pair pulls back. On the daily chart, retracements from the recent swing high at 89,143 suggest critical levels at 88,273 (38.2%) and 87,532 (61.8%), with the latter overlapping the bearish engulfing pattern’s support level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves using a combination of the 50-period and 200-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart as entry signals, coupled with RSI divergence for confirmation. A long position could be triggered when price crosses above the 50-period MA with RSI showing a bullish divergence (higher price, higher RSI). A stop-loss could be placed below the nearest Fibonacci support level. This approach would aim to capture breakout momentum while managing risk through defined support levels and divergence triggers.