Market Overview for Bitcoin/Argentine Peso (BTCARS)

• BTCARS traded in a volatile range, forming mixed candlestick patterns suggesting indecision.
• Price action saw a sharp decline from 186M to 183M, with bearish momentum confirmed by RSI and MACD.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, indicating potential oversold conditions and possible reversal.
• Volume spiked during key declines, confirming bearish moves but also showing reduced buying pressure in the later session.
• Fibonacci retracement levels highlight potential support zones near 183.5M and 184.3M.

The Bitcoin/Argentine Peso (BTCARS) pair opened at 184,648,243 on October 2, 2025 (12:00 ET - 1), reaching a high of 187,299,982 and a low of 180,823,790 before closing at 184,329,999 on October 3, 2025 (12:00 ET). Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 1.593 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately 288,616,798,000 Argentine Pesos.

The pair’s 15-minute chart showed bearish dominance during the late afternoon and early evening, with a sharp breakdown to 183M followed by a period of consolidation. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed at 184.3M–185.7M, followed by a long bearish candle at 183.5M–183.8M, indicating potential exhaustion in the bullish side. A doji at 184.3M–184.3M suggested indecision and a potential pause in the downward trend. The price action, however, appears to be underpinned by weak buying pressure, especially in the last 6 hours, where price moved sideways in a tight range.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels can be identified at 183.5M (based on a prior bearish engulfing candle), 184.3M (a doji formation), and 185.7M (a bearish reversal candle). Resistance levels include 186.5M and 187.3M (the 24-hour high). A notable bearish pattern occurred at 184.3M–185.7M, followed by a breakdown at 183.5M. The price could test the 183.5M level again in the next 24 hours, and a break below this level may open the path to 182M.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both slope downward, confirming the bearish bias. On the daily chart (projected from the 15-minute data), the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are in a bearish alignment, with price trading significantly below the 200-period MA. The trend appears to be bearish, and a pullback above the 50-period MA could trigger a short-term bounce.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line shows bearish divergence with the price, especially during the late afternoon, and remains in negative territory, confirming the downward momentum. The RSI crossed into oversold territory (below 30) in the last few hours, which may suggest a potential short-term bounce, though the strength of this signal may be limited given the weak volume.

Bollinger Bands

Price has moved near the lower Bollinger Band during the last 6 hours, indicating an oversold condition. The bands are relatively narrow compared to earlier in the day, suggesting that a breakout could be imminent, though the direction is uncertain. A rebound above the middle band may indicate a short-term reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the key bearish move from 185.7M to 183.5M, confirming the validity of that move. However, volume has since diminished, indicating reduced conviction in the bearish bias. Turnover also dropped significantly after the 20:00 ET time frame, further supporting the idea of a potential pause in the trend. A divergence between price and volume suggests caution in interpreting further downside as strong.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci levels from the swing high of 187.3M to the low of 180.8M include 185.4M (38.2%), 184.2M (50%), and 183.0M (61.8%). The 50% retracement level (184.2M) aligns with a key support level and a doji pattern, suggesting a potential area for a bounce. A break below the 61.8% level may signal further bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish setup and the key support levels identified, a potential backtesting strategy could involve shorting BTCARS upon a breakdown of the 183.5M support level, with a stop-loss placed just above the 184.3M doji and a target at 182M. Additionally, a small long position could be triggered if the price closes above the 184.3M level within the next 24 hours, with a stop at 183.5M. This dual approach would balance risk and reward, capitalizing on both the bearish trend and potential bounces in the range-bound environment.