Market Overview: Bitcoin/Argentine Peso (BTCARS) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-12

• Price dropped sharply from 172M ARA to 167M ARA amid volatile 24-hour trading.
• Key support levels tested near 167M ARA with a failed rebound attempt.
• Volume surged during the selloff, highlighting increased bearish pressure.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions earlier in the session, followed by divergence.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the decline, indicating rising volatility.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12, Bitcoin/Argentine Peso (BTCARS) opened at 170881401 ARA, hitting a high of 172894466 ARA and a low of 165000001 ARA during the past 24 hours. The 15-minute candles closed at 171786047 ARA, with a total volume of 1.09495 BTC and a notional turnover of 186,264,779,697.50 ARA. The session was marked by a sharp decline and elevated volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish trend with multiple breakdowns from key resistance levels, including 172M ARA and 171M ARA. Notable bearish patterns include a dark cloud cover and a bearish engulfing pattern during the afternoon trading hours, which suggested a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish. A key support level was identified near 167M ARA, where the price briefly bounced but failed to hold, indicating weak buying interest at this level.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50 periods on 15-minute data) indicate a continued bearish bias as the 20-period line crossed below the 50-period line earlier in the session, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period line is trading below the 100 and 200-period lines, reinforcing the long-term bearish structure and potential for further downside.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed bearish divergence during the late afternoon, with declining momentum as the price continued to fall. The RSI crossed below 30 mid-session, signaling oversold conditions, though this was not followed by a convincing bullish rebound, suggesting exhaustion rather than a reversal. Overbought readings earlier in the session were followed by bearish confirmation, hinting that further downside remains probable.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, particularly between 19:15 and 20:30 ET on 2025-10-11, reflecting a sharp increase in volatility. The price spent most of the session near the lower band, especially after the breakdown below 170M ARA, indicating a strong bearish bias. The recent contraction in the bands suggests potential for a breakout or reversal, but the prevailing sentiment remains bearish.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish breakdowns, especially around 19:15 ET, 20:30 ET, and again after 21:45 ET, confirming the bearish momentum. However, the rebound attempts were accompanied by lower volume, indicating weak conviction from buyers. Notional turnover was highest during the selloff, with divergences observed in the final hours, suggesting that the downward move may lack sufficient follow-through.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing (172M ARA to 167M ARA), the 61.8% retracement level sits at approximately 169.25M ARA. The price briefly bounced near this level but failed to hold, indicating that the 61.8% retracement is a key area to watch for potential continuation or a short-term reversal. The 50% level (~169.5M ARA) was tested multiple times but remains a potential zone for further consolidation or rejection.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy description outlines a short-term bearish framework based on key candlestick patterns and divergences in technical indicators. Given the observed bearish engulfing patterns and RSI divergence, this strategy would have triggered a short signal around 19:15–20:15 ET. The confirmation of bearish momentum via MACD and volume spikes would have reinforced the position. A stop-loss above the 171M ARA resistance level and a target near the 167M ARA support align with the Fibonacci and support levels observed during the session. The strategy’s risk-reward ratio appears balanced, though execution would depend on precise timing and volatility management.