Market Overview for Bitcoin/Argentine Peso (BTCARS) – 2025-09-13

• BTCARS broke above 171M, with a bullish engulfing pattern at 168M.
• Volatility surged in the 168M-171M range, with volume spiking near highs.
• RSI overbought at 68, suggesting potential pullback ahead of 173M.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, reflecting heightened short-term uncertainty.
• Turnover hit $0.026M at 168M, but momentum faded after 171M.

BTCARS opened at 168,107,726 at 11:45 ET on 2025-09-12 and surged to a high of 172,379,539 before closing at 170,632,114 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-13. The 24-hour volume was 0.215 BTC, with total turnover at 36,823,018.25 Argentine Pesos.

Structure & Formations

The price moved in a bullish fashion over the 24-hour period, forming a textbook bullish engulfing pattern as it surged from 168M to 171M. Key support levels emerged around 169.5M and 168M, with resistance forming at 171M and above. A doji appeared at 171M-172M, signaling indecision. The formation of a higher high above the 171M resistance suggests continuation potential, but the doji and subsequent pullback hint at potential consolidation or correction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA, forming a golden cross around 170M. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits above the 100-period MA, reinforcing the bullish bias. The 200-period MA remains well below the current price, indicating a departure from long-term averages and potential overextension.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram crossed into positive territory during the afternoon surge, with the line above the signal line, reinforcing momentum. The RSI hit 68 as the price reached 171M, indicating overbought conditions. A pullback below 58 on the RSI could trigger short-term profit-taking.

Bollinger Bands

The bands expanded significantly during the 168M-171M rally, suggesting increased volatility. The price closed near the upper band on the 15-minute chart, which is a positive sign for continuation, though a break above 172M could trigger further expansion. The middle band sat at 170M, aligning with the 20-period MA.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the 168M-171M surge, with the largest 15-minute candle reaching 0.00722 BTC traded. Turnover confirmed the price action, rising in sync with the rally. However, a divergence appears as the price hit 172M, with volume tapering off despite the continued price rise. This could signal exhaustion or a lack of follow-through on the bullish breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying retracements to the 168M–171M swing, key levels at 61.8% (~170.1M) and 78.6% (~171.6M) were observed. The 61.8% level held as support, and the price tested the 78.6% level before pulling back. On a broader scale, the daily move from the 168M low to the 172M high aligns with a 61.8% retracement of the prior bearish move, suggesting a potential continuation or consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on identifying bullish engulfing patterns in the 15-minute timeframe, confirmed by a golden cross of the 20/50-period MAs and a MACD crossover. Traders could enter long positions on confirmation of these signals, with stop-loss placement below the 61.8% Fibonacci level (~170.1M) and a target at the 78.6% level (~171.6M). The divergence in volume and RSI overbought conditions provide early exits if the pattern fails. This approach aligns with the observed price behavior and could be optimized for intraday or swing trading scenarios.