Market Overview for Bella Protocol/Tether (BELUSDT) on 2025-10-12

• BELUSDT opened at 0.2774 and fell to 0.2152 before rebounding to close at 0.2042, showing bearish momentum.
• Key support at 0.2005–0.2028 held briefly but failed to prevent further decline after 0.2100 broke.
• Volatility spiked near 0.2159 but failed to drive a sustainable rally, signaling weak conviction.
• RSI hovered near oversold levels, suggesting potential for a minor bounce, though momentum remains weak.
• Volume surged at 0.2159 and 0.2255 but failed to confirm bullish follow-through.

Bella Protocol/Tether (BELUSDT) opened at 0.2774 on 2025-10-11 16:00 ET and closed at 0.2042 on 2025-10-12 12:00 ET, with a daily high of 0.2857 and a low of 0.1944. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 124,213,353.0, and notional turnover was approximately $33,486,385.36 (assuming Tether as the reference).

Over the past 24 hours, BELUSDT has traded in a wide range, showing a clear bearish bias. The price fell from 0.2774 to 0.2152, with a brief recovery to 0.2538 followed by a sharp decline toward the session’s low. Key support levels formed around 0.2005 and 0.2028, with the 0.2100 level acting as a short-term resistance that failed to hold during the late morning.

The 15-minute candlestick chart shows a series of bearish patterns, including a morning doji near 0.2159 and a bearish engulfing pattern after 0.2255. These suggest weakening bullish conviction. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both been bearish, with the price frequently closing below both.

The RSI has been in the 25–30 range for much of the session, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to push back above 40, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend. The MACD line has remained below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands show an expansion in volatility as the price moved between 0.2159 and 0.2255, followed by a contraction as the price fell toward 0.2042. This suggests a potential for a bounce near the lower band, but the overall trend remains bearish.

The 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the swing high of 0.2857 and low of 0.1944 sit at approximately 0.2536 and 0.2165. BELUSDT has bounced off the 61.8% level before, but the lack of follow-through suggests weak support.

Looking ahead, the price could test the next support level at 0.1950–0.1970, though a rebound near 0.2005–0.2035 is possible if buyers step in. Traders should be cautious of a break below 0.1950, which could open the door to further declines toward 0.1900.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could be designed to capitalize on the bearish momentum observed in BELUSDT. One possible approach is to enter short positions when the price breaks below a key Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 0.2165) and the RSI remains below 40. A stop-loss could be placed just above the recent swing high, while the target could be set near the next Fibonacci level or the session’s low.

On the 15-minute chart, confirmation of the short trade could be enhanced by a bearish engulfing pattern or a close below the 50-period moving average. This method has shown some success in the current data, with the price reacting negatively to these setups.