Market Overview for Bella Protocol/Tether (BELUSDT) as of 2025-10-04 12:00 ET

• BELUSDT traded in a tight range for much of the session before dropping to 0.2379 near the end of the day.
• A key support at 0.2440 was tested multiple times and appears to be holding.
• MACD and RSI suggest bearish momentum, with RSI indicating oversold conditions.
• High volume was observed during the breakdown, but price failed to confirm a strong bearish move.
• Volatility remains elevated, with price fluctuating within a widening Bollinger Band range.

The BELUSDT pair opened at 0.2477 at 12:00 ET − 1 and reached a high of 0.2511 before falling to a low of 0.2379. It closed at 0.2381 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 2,361,465.3, and turnover was $598,368.85 over the 24-hour period. The pair experienced a sharp decline in the latter half of the day, with bearish momentum intensifying after 15:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.249–0.2477 around 17:00 ET–17:30 ET, followed by a doji at 0.2461–0.2454 at 17:30 ET, indicating indecision. A key support level of 0.2440 was tested three times with mixed results, suggesting a potential pivot point. A bearish breakdown below 0.2430 may trigger a test of 0.2370, a prior swing low.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period SMAs have both dipped below the price, confirming the bearish bias. The 50-period SMA sits around 0.2470, acting as a static overhead resistance. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is at 0.2490, aligning with a recent swing high. The 200-period SMA at 0.2500 remains a critical resistance level.

MACD & RSI

MACD has turned negative, with the histogram showing bearish divergence, particularly between 15:00 and 17:00 ET. RSI hit an oversold level of 30 near 0.2379, suggesting a potential bounce. However, the prolonged bearish move has not generated a strong reversal signal. A move above 0.2440 could see RSI rise above 50, indicating a possible short-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

The price has widened the Bollinger Bands significantly, signaling increasing volatility. The recent breakdown below the lower band at 0.2430 may indicate a continuation of the bearish move. If price retests the lower band near 0.2370 and bounces, the bands may contract again, potentially setting up for a reversal pattern.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown between 15:00 and 16:00 ET, confirming the bearish move. Turnover increased sharply during the same period, reaching $40,586 at 10:45 ET and again at 16:00 ET. A divergence between price and volume has not been observed, suggesting that the bearish move is supported by strong selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent high of 0.2511 and low of 0.2379, the 61.8% level is at 0.2434, which aligns with a key support. The 38.2% retracement is at 0.2462, which acted as a resistance earlier in the session. A break of 0.2434 would open the path to the 23.6% level at 0.2484 and beyond.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering a short position on a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (0.2434) with a stop-loss placed above the 50-period SMA (0.2470) and a take-profit target at the 23.6% retracement level (0.2484). The strategy relies on confirming the bearish momentum with a strong volume spike and a clear breakdown of the support. If the price stabilizes near 0.2370 and shows signs of a reversal (e.g., a bullish engulfing pattern), the strategy would exit early to lock in gains.