Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT)

• Price action sees AXSUSDT fall by 23.6% from its 24-hour high, forming a bearish breakdown under 1.44.
• RSI has entered oversold territory, while MACD signals bearish momentum with multiple death crosses.
• Volatility expanded through the night, with turnover spiking over 10x from early morning lows.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, suggesting increased pressure for continuation or a reversal.
• Fibonacci levels at 1.332 and 1.406 indicate potential support and resistance as the trend plays out.

24-Hour Summary

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at 1.441 on 2025-11-02 12:00 ET and traded as high as 1.471 before falling to a 24-hour low of 1.212. It closed at 1.270 at 2025-11-03 12:00 ET, reflecting a sharp bearish move. The total volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 2.69 million units, with a notional turnover of roughly 3.6 million USD. The market appears to be in a strong downward bias, supported by high volume and deteriorating momentum.

Structure & Formations

The price structure shows a key bearish breakdown below the 1.44 level, which had previously acted as a support. A series of lower highs and lower lows has emerged, with a large bearish candle at 1.272 on 1530 ET marking a key swing low. A potential double-bottom is forming around the 1.25–1.27 zone, with 1.238 and 1.262 acting as key support levels. A morning doji near 1.31 and a long bearish candle at 1.364 also signal internal hesitation and bearish bias.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows price below the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily chart, AXSUSDT is comfortably below the 50, 100, and 200-EMA lines, indicating a strong downtrend. The alignment of multiple moving averages under price suggests the downtrend is likely to persist unless a reversal candle closes above the 50-EMA at 1.41.

MACD & RSI

RSI has dropped to oversold territory near 27, signaling potential for a rebound or a continuation if bearish momentum persists. The MACD line crossed below the signal line on multiple occasions, with a recent death cross reinforcing the bearish bias. The histogram shows divergence between volume and momentum, with MACD momentum weakening despite increased volume in the 2300–0500 ET window.

Bollinger Bands

Price has been near the lower Bollinger Band since 0700 ET, indicating a high volatility environment and strong bearish pressure. A contraction of the bands at 0600–0700 ET followed by an expansion suggests a potential breakout or breakdown is imminent. The current positioning near the lower band implies a high probability of continuation, though a reversal above the midline could signal a trend shift.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the breakdown from 1.336 to 1.272, reaching a peak of over 387,000 units. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at 400,000 USD during this period. A divergence between price and volume is visible around 1.334–1.342, suggesting market exhaustion. The overall increase in both volume and turnover supports the bearish narrative and increases the likelihood of further declines.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 1.471 high to the 1.212 low indicate key support levels at 1.332 (38.2%) and 1.272 (50%). The current price is approaching 1.272, and a break below this level would trigger a deeper retest of 1.236 (61.8%). On the daily chart, 1.345 is a key Fibonacci level for potential short-term support or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed short strategy combines RSI and MACD signals to identify high-probability bearish entries in a volatile market. RSI < 30 and a MACD death cross on the same 15-minute bar define a short entry, while either a RSI ≥ 30 or MACD golden cross triggers a close. The strategy assumes no stop-loss or take-profit and relies solely on signal reversal. Given the current RSI reading near 27 and a recent MACD death cross, the conditions align with the hypothesis. A full backtest across 2022–2025 would evaluate the strategy's profitability and adaptability to current price dynamics.

Forward-Looking View

Looking ahead, AXSUSDT appears likely to test key support at 1.272 and potentially 1.236 in the next 24 hours. A strong rebound above the 1.34–1.36 range would be needed to suggest a reversal. Investors should remain cautious of continued bearish momentum and watch for divergence in volume and MACD to assess potential trend exhaustion.