Market Overview: Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT)

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of $2.566 before consolidating.
• Key resistance appears at $2.54–$2.56, with strong support near $2.52.
• High volume during the $2.48–$2.56 range indicates accumulation.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions at the peak, but momentum remains strong.
• Volatility has expanded from a $2.39–$2.41 range to $2.39–$2.56.

Price Action and Structure

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at $2.403 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at $2.533 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $2.566 and a low of $2.39. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 603,020.75, with a notional turnover of $1,537,682.33. The price formed multiple bullish engulfing patterns and a key double-bottom structure near $2.40–$2.41, with resistance levels forming at $2.48, $2.52, and $2.54–$2.56. A strong rejection near $2.56 suggests growing bearish pressure after the rally.

Support and Resistance Levels

Key support levels are located at $2.48, $2.44, and $2.40, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing from $2.39 to $2.56 at $2.47. Resistance levels are at $2.52 (38.2%), $2.54 (50%), and $2.56 (61.8%). A break above $2.56 may invite further testing of $2.58–$2.60, while a retest of $2.48 could confirm a continuation of the bullish trend or prompt a pullback.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both been bullish, with the price staying above both lines throughout the 24-hour period. The daily 50-period MA is at $2.46, the 100-period at $2.44, and the 200-period at $2.42, suggesting the pair remains in a longer-term bullish setup. RSI hit 73–75 during the peak of the rally, signaling overbought territory and potential for a pullback or consolidation phase.

MACD and Volatility

The MACD line remained positive for most of the 24-hour window, with a strong bullish crossover occurring just before the $2.52–$2.56 surge. Bollinger Bands widened as the price surged, indicating growing volatility. Price remained above the 20-period SMA within the upper band during the peak, suggesting strong bullish momentum. A narrowing of bands may occur in the near term if price consolidates.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked significantly during the $2.48–$2.56 range, reaching as high as 39,382.54 in one 15-minute interval. Turnover also increased in line with volume, confirming the strength of the move. However, a divergence between price and volume may form if the price tests $2.56 again with lower volume, which could signal weakening momentum and a potential reversal.

Fibonacci Retracement and Price Behavior

Fibonacci levels played a significant role in price behavior, with the 61.8% level at $2.47 acting as strong support and the 50% level at $2.52 confirming bullish continuation. A further break above $2.56 (61.8% of the $2.39–$2.56 swing) may lead to a move toward $2.58–$2.60, with a retest of $2.52 expected in the short term. A failure to hold above $2.48 could shift the narrative to a correction phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves using the 20/50 EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart as an entry signal, with a stop-loss placed just below the most recent swing low and a take-profit at the next Fibonacci resistance level. This strategy aligns with the observed bullish structure and strong volume confirmation seen during the $2.48–$2.56 move. Given the current position above key moving averages and the overbought RSI conditions, a reversal or consolidation phase may offer a more favorable risk-reward setup for the next wave of accumulation.