Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT): 24-Hour Summary

• Price dropped sharply from a high of 2.620 to a low of 2.453, closing at 2.474
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound
• Volatility expanded significantly, with large-volume swings observed after 09:45 ET
• Strong bearish momentum in the second half of the 24-hour period
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating heightened uncertainty and possible trend exhaustion

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at 2.560 at 12:00 ET – 1, surged to a high of 2.620, and hit a low of 2.453 before closing at 2.474 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 193,877.02, with turnover at $495,407. The 24-hour period was marked by a sharp decline from earlier highs, with increasing bearish pressure in the latter half.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a strong bearish continuation pattern, marked by a large-volume candle at 09:45 ET which gapped down to 2.512. This indicated aggressive selling pressure. A doji appeared near the 2.500 level, suggesting temporary indecision. A key support level was identified around 2.485, where price found a floor twice. Resistance levels at 2.560 and 2.580 appear intact, with potential for a bounce on a recovery.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA were in bearish alignment, with price below both. Daily data shows the 50D/100D/200D averages also in a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downtrend. The short-term momentum appears to be in favor of further downside, though a cross back above the 50-period average could indicate a short-term reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. RSI hit oversold territory below 30 around 12:00 ET, hinting at a potential rebound. However, this remains speculative and would require confirmation through a retest of key levels. The divergence between price and RSI suggests some short-term accumulation may be underway.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 09:45 ET, indicating increased volatility. Price has traded near the lower band for much of the latter half of the 24-hour period, signaling oversold conditions and potential for a bounce. A break above the upper band would suggest a recovery, but this would need volume confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 09:45 ET and again around 15:00 ET, with large turnover observed during those periods. The divergence between price and volume in the last few hours suggests that selling pressure may be waning. Price action and volume appear to align in confirming the recent bearish move, though the latest volume bars show some potential for a reversal if the trend does not continue.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 2.620 high to the 2.453 low include 2.533 (61.8%) and 2.582 (38.2%). Price found support near 2.512, close to the 61.8% level, and then briefly tested 2.533 before reversing lower. A retest of the 2.533 level could be a setup for a short-term bounce. A break below 2.453 would target the next lower Fibonacci level at 2.429.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves entering long positions after a confirmed breakout above the 50-period SMA on a 15-minute chart, provided RSI is above 40 and volume is above the 20-period average. This setup aims to capitalize on short-term bounces during extended downtrends. In the current scenario, such a setup could be viable if AXSUSDT confirms a rebound above 2.500 with strong volume and RSI above 40, aligning with the observed Fibonacci and Bollinger Band levels.