Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) – 2025-10-29

• Price dipped to 1.546 before rebounding to close near 1.568, showing intraday volatility and a bearish-bullish tug-of-war.
• RSI and MACD indicate overbought territory late in the session, hinting at potential near-term exhaustion.
• Volume spiked during the midday decline but failed to confirm a bearish breakout, suggesting short-term indecision.
• Key support at 1.546 was tested but held, with a potential counter-trend rally forming above the 1.559 level.
• Bollinger Bands expanded mid-session, reflecting heightened volatility, and price remained near the upper band during the rally.

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at 1.585 on 2025-10-28 at 16:00 ET and closed at 1.568 on 2025-10-29 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 1.598 and a low of 1.531. The 24-hour volume was 718,641.39, with a notional turnover of 1,125,222.08.

The 24-hour price action on a 15-minute chart reveals a bearish bias early in the session, with a sharp decline from 1.598 to 1.553 before midday, followed by a modest rally in the afternoon. Key resistance levels formed around 1.593 and 1.569, while support held at 1.546 and 1.531. Notable candlestick patterns include a bearish engulfing formation at 1.593 and a Doji star near 1.533, hinting at indecision and potential reversal cues.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below price during the midday selloff, confirming short-term bearish momentum. The 50-period MA acted as a resistance near 1.562, and the price struggled to break above it for most of the session. The RSI climbed into overbought territory late in the day, peaking at 68, while the MACD crossed into positive territory, suggesting potential for a short-lived rally. However, the lack of follow-through volume indicates that the bullish signal may lack conviction.

Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning volatility, with price touching the upper band at 1.598 and the lower band at 1.531. The afternoon rally saw price remain within the band’s midrange, suggesting a period of consolidation following the sharp correction. Fibonacci retracement levels showed the 61.8% level near 1.569 was tested but failed to hold, while the 38.2% level at 1.559 supported the afternoon rebound. The 1.569-1.546 range is likely to remain pivotal in the near term.

The MACD and RSI readings suggest that while bulls have made a late attempt to reclaim the 1.569 level, bearish momentum remains a lurking risk, especially if key support levels break. Investors may watch for a retest of the 1.546 support and a potential bearish breakout to 1.531 if short-term optimism fails. Conversely, a sustained close above 1.569 could signal renewed bullish intent, but this is unlikely without higher volume confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of a Doji Star pattern near 1.533 on the 15-minute chart, a potential backtest strategy would involve entering a short or neutral position on confirmation of a break below this pattern’s close, with a 3-day holding period. This strategy relies on the Doji Star being a reversal signal and assumes a continuation of bearish momentum after the formation. The Doji Star appears during a consolidation phase, and if validated by a follow-through decline below 1.533, could serve as a sell signal. While the current data source for automated Doji detection is unavailable, a manual backtest using known Doji Star dates or a local analysis of AXSUSDT OHLC data from 2022-01-01 to present would be recommended to assess the strategy’s historical viability.