Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) on 2025-10-12

• AXS/USDT traded lower overnight but reversed sharply with a 24-hour high near $1.663, driven by increased buying pressure.
• Volatility expanded through a deep selloff to $1.552 before a strong reversal, confirming a potential short-term bottom.
• RSI entered oversold territory during the dip, signaling potential for a bounce, while MACD crossed into positive territory late in the session.
• Volume spiked sharply during the recovery, with over $155k in notional turnover for the 15:00 ET candle, confirming strength in the rebound.
• Bollinger Bands show price is closing near the upper band, reflecting heightened volatility and a bullish close to the 24-hour period.

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXS/USDT) opened at $1.606 on 2025-10-11 12:00 ET and traded as low as $1.552 before closing at $1.663 on 2025-10-12 12:00 ET. The pair touched a 24-hour high of $1.663 and a low of $1.552, with total volume at 755,901.97 and notional turnover reaching approximately $1,184,916.

The 24-hour chart shows a bearish breakdown in the early hours followed by a sharp and sustained rally, particularly from 19:30 to 16:00 ET. A key support level formed around $1.552, where volume spiked, and a strong engulfing candle marked the reversal. Price then moved through several prior highs, forming a bullish continuation pattern. A 1.571–1.663 rally suggests a breakout above a prior resistance cluster, with the next key target near $1.70 on a sustained close above $1.65. On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed to the bullish side late in the session, adding confirmation to the reversal.

The 15-minute RSI dropped below 30 during the selloff but closed near 60, indicating a potential oversold bounce. MACD crossed above the zero line and held, signaling renewed bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands show the price has moved from the lower band to near the upper band, indicating high volatility and a strong move toward the top of the range. Volume remained consistently above the 20-period average, especially during the final 2 hours of the session, suggesting strong conviction in the upward move.

The 200-day SMA remains above current price action, indicating a longer-term bearish bias, but the 50SMA has crossed above the 200SMA recently, forming a potential golden cross. This suggests a shift in medium-term sentiment. On the daily chart, AXS/USDT appears to be forming a bullish flag pattern after a sharp decline, with the flagpole extending from $1.617 to $1.552 and a consolidation area between $1.552 and $1.575.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for AXS/USDT could be to buy on a bullish engulfing pattern forming at a key support level, confirmed by a closing price above the prior candle's high and a significant volume spike. In this case, the candle at 19:30 ET (1.558) closed at 1.544 and was followed by a bullish engulfing candle at 19:45 ET with a volume of 47,232.49 and a close at 1.533. The strategy would then aim to take profits at the next Fibonacci retracement level (61.8% of the prior decline), around $1.62, and use the 38.2% level as a stop-loss. Given the recent MACD crossover and RSI confirmation, this pattern could be used as a high-probability entry for a long position, especially in a market showing increasing volatility and volume.