Market Overview for Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC)

• Price fell sharply after 6 PM ET, hitting a 24-hour low near 9.9e-7.
• Volatility spiked overnight with large swings and a 78% drop from peak to trough.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions during the selloff, but buying pressure failed to confirm a reversal.
• Volume surged during the decline, confirming bearish momentum.
• Price retested key Fibonacci levels and failed to reclaim 1.8e-6 resistance early on.

24-Hour Summary

Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC) opened at 2.36e-6 (12:00 ET − 1) and closed at 1.8e-6 (12:00 ET) after a sharp decline overnight. The pair reached a high of 2.47e-6 and a low of 9.9e-7, with a 24-hour volume of ~1.62 million Axelar and a notional turnover of ~$3.35 million. The market experienced a dramatic bearish reversal after 6 PM ET and continued to consolidate lower early on.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern at 2.35e-6 and a long lower shadow at 2.37e-6, signaling rejection of higher levels. A strong bearish trend emerged after 6 PM ET, with a 78% drop from peak to trough in under three hours. The consolidation at 1.77e-6 to 1.82e-6 shows a potential short-term floor forming, but the structure remains fragile.

Moving Averages and Fibonacci Levels

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (1.78e-6) and 50-period MA (1.76e-6) are both below the price, indicating bearish bias. The 50-period MA acted as a temporary support but failed to hold the price above. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA remains far above the recent action, reinforcing the downtrend. Key Fibonacci levels (38.2% at 1.78e-6, 61.8% at 1.62e-6) were tested, but only 38.2% saw partial rejection.

Momentum and Volatility Indicators

The RSI dipped into oversold territory near 25 during the selloff, failing to trigger a meaningful reversal. MACD turned bearish with a negative histogram and a crossover below zero, confirming weakening bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the overnight decline, showing increased volatility. Price remains well below the lower band, suggesting continued pressure to test lower Fibonacci levels.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 21:15 ET – 22:15 ET period, with over 1.1 million Axelar traded as the price fell from 2.15e-6 to 9.9e-7. Turnover increased in tandem, confirming the bearish move. The divergence between price and volume in the early morning consolidation suggests limited follow-through in selling pressure, though this could change with renewed bearish sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on RSI and MACD crossover could be applied to capture the oversold bounce. A long entry could be triggered on RSI crossing above 30 and a bullish MACD crossover, with stop-loss placed below the recent low of 1.74e-6. The risk remains high due to the ongoing bearish trend, but Fibonacci retracement levels at 1.8e-6 and 1.82e-6 offer potential targets for short-term traders.