Market Overview for Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC) – 2025-10-03

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• AXLBTC formed a bullish engulfing pattern at $2.44e-6, signaling potential reversal after a 3.5% pullback
• RSI and MACD show moderate momentum; price remains within Bollinger Bands, indicating stable volatility
• Volume spiked at $2.45e-6 and $2.55e-6, confirming key support and resistance levels during 24 hours
• Price retested 61.8% Fibonacci level at $2.46e-6 twice, failing to break above, indicating bearish pressure
• Turnover confirmed price action near $2.44e-6 and $2.46e-6 but diverged during minor rallies near $2.51e-6

The Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC) pair opened at $2.44e-6 on October 2, 2025, and reached an intraday high of $2.55e-6 before closing at $2.43e-6 on October 3, 2025. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 78,795.05, with a turnover of $199.11. The pair has shown a bearish bias, with strong rejection at $2.55e-6 and key support holding at $2.44e-6.

Structure and formations suggest a consolidating pattern, with the $2.44e-6–$2.55e-6 range acting as a key consolidation zone. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at $2.44e-6 as price moved from $2.44e-6 to $2.51e-6, but the move was rejected. A doji formed at $2.51e-6, highlighting indecision among buyers. Notably, the price has failed to surpass $2.55e-6 on two separate attempts, with the last attempt on October 2 at 19:00 ET resulting in a bearish reversal. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate a slightly bearish bias, with the 50SMA acting as dynamic resistance.

The RSI has remained in the neutral zone (40–60), but with a slight bearish lean, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. MACD has crossed below its signal line, reinforcing the bearish bias. The pair appears to be in a Bollinger Band contraction phase, with price hovering near the midline, indicating a potential breakout could be imminent. Volatility has been moderate, with price rarely breaking the outer bands. Volume spiked at $2.45e-6 and $2.55e-6 but fell off during minor rallies, indicating uneven buyer conviction.

Fibonacci retracement levels show the 61.8% level at $2.46e-6 has acted as a key support and resistance point during the day. The pair tested this level twice, failing to break through each time. The 38.2% retracement level at $2.48e-6 acted as a minor resistance but was briefly breached. In the next 24 hours, a sustained move above $2.46e-6 could trigger further bullish momentum, while a break below $2.44e-6 may open the door to deeper corrective levels. Investors should remain cautious and monitor volume and turnover for confirmation of directional bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed price behavior and technical indicators, a backtest hypothesis could be formulated around a trend-following breakout strategy using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart. The strategy would enter long when price crosses above the 50SMA after a confirmed bullish engulfing pattern and a RSI crossover above its 50SMA. A stop-loss would be placed at the most recent swing low, while a take-profit would be set at the nearest Fibonacci extension level (typically 161.8% of the recent swing). Given the price’s rejection at $2.55e-6 and its behavior in the $2.44e-6–$2.55e-6 range, this setup could be tested with a backtest period from October 2 to October 3, 2025.