Market Overview for Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC) on 2025-09-22

• Price declined by ~23% over 24 hours, with sharp sell-off from 2.83e-06 to 2.57e-06
• RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting potential rebound could be near
• Volatility increased mid-session amid large-volume moves from 06:15–08:30 ET
• Bollinger Bands showed widening, reflecting rising uncertainty and trading activity
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed early morning, confirming bearish bias

The 24-hour session for Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC) began at 2.83e-06 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 2.58e-06 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. The high was 2.84e-06, while the low dropped to 2.5e-06. Total volume reached 167,432.26, and notional turnover totaled approximately 441.66 (in Bitcoin terms). The pair showed a clear bearish bias, with price testing and breaking key intraday support levels.

Structure & Formations

AXLBTC opened near key resistance at 2.83e-06 but quickly formed a bearish engulfing pattern following a large-volume candle. This confirmed a short-term shift in sentiment. A bear flag formation emerged between 2.82e-06 and 2.5e-06, suggesting continuation of the downward trend. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 2.84e-06 high to the 2.5e-06 low sat near 2.65e-06, which appears to have acted as a temporary resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (2.79e-06) and 50-period MA (2.77e-06) both crossed below the price, reinforcing a bearish crossover signal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (2.83e-06) now sits above the 200-period MA (2.79e-06), forming a death cross and signaling a bearish medium-term outlook.

MACD & RSI

The 12/26 MACD showed negative divergence with price, as the indicator failed to make new lows despite price breaking below prior support levels. RSI dropped into the 30s, signaling oversold conditions and potentially hinting at a near-term bounce. However, given the bearish volume and price action, a rebound may not be enough to reverse the larger downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly after 06:15 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening and price dropping to the lower band during the session low at 2.5e-06. The price has remained near the lower band for much of the session, indicating heightened bearish pressure. A potential retest of the upper band at ~2.75e-06 could happen, but only if a large buying interest emerges.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key turning points, especially between 06:15–08:30 ET and again at 13:15–13:45 ET. Price and turnover remained aligned in the bearish phase, with no signs of divergence. The largest single candle was at 06:15 ET, with a volume of 27,566.96 and a price drop of 2.66e-06 to 2.59e-06, reflecting strong selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracement levels from the 2.84e-06 high to the 2.5e-06 low were at 2.76e-06 (38.2%), 2.67e-06 (50%), and 2.65e-06 (61.8%). The 50% level acted as resistance briefly but was pierced during the morning sell-off. A retest of the 61.8% level could now act as dynamic support, especially if RSI moves out of oversold territory.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions when a bearish engulfing pattern forms on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish divergence in the MACD and a volume spike above the 15-period average. A stop-loss could be placed just above the high of the engulfing candle, while a target would aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This strategy could be tested over similar bearish market conditions in the past 6 months to evaluate its robustness and win rate.