Market Overview for Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT)

• Price opened at $1.1251, surged to $1.1485, then retreated to close at $1.1716, reflecting mixed momentum.
• Volatility expanded post 04:15 ET with a sharp rally to $1.1759, confirming buying pressure and trend extension.
• Volume spiked after 02:00 ET, aligning with price breaks above key levels, suggesting accumulation.
• RSI shows overbought conditions at 78.2% and oversold at 21.8%, indicating potential for pullbacks or rebounds.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the rally, signaling increased volatility and potential for range expansion.

Opening and Closing Summary

Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) opened at $1.1251 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $1.1716 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $1.1759 and a low of $1.0921. The 24-hour volume amounted to 13.26 million AVNT, with a notional turnover of approximately $15.03 million.

Structure & Formations

The price of AVNTUSDT displayed a bearish reversal pattern at 20:00 ET (1.1256 to 1.1135) followed by a bullish engulfing pattern from 02:00 to 02:15 ET ($1.0936 to $1.0902 to $1.1026), indicating potential trend shifts. A key support level emerged at $1.1136 during the early hours, while resistance was tested at $1.1759. A doji formed at $1.1105 at 02:00 ET, suggesting indecision and potential consolidation ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA (a bullish “Golden Cross”) around 02:00 ET, confirming the upward trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was above the 200-period MA, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias. However, the 200-period MA at $1.1148 remained a critical line to watch for retests.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive around 02:00 ET, confirming the bullish momentum. RSI hit an overbought level of 78.2% at 04:15 ET, suggesting a potential pullback, and later dipped into oversold territory at 21.8% during the 02:00–02:30 ET dip, hinting at possible rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 04:15 ET rally, with price peaking at the upper band. This expansion indicated heightened volatility and a possible continuation of the trend. Price remained within the bands most of the day, though occasional deviations occurred during key swings.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged after 02:00 ET, coinciding with the bullish reversal and breakout above $1.13. The largest single 15-minute notional turnover was at 04:15 ET ($1.67 million), confirming the strength of the rally. A divergence between volume and price occurred during the 06:00–08:00 ET consolidation phase, suggesting cautious momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the low of $1.0921 to the high of $1.1759, the 61.8% retracement level came in at approximately $1.1420 and was tested multiple times. The 38.2% level at $1.1270 acted as a minor support. On the 15-minute chart, a key swing from $1.1136 to $1.1759 showed strong Fibonacci alignment, with the 50% level at $1.1444 acting as a pivot point.

Forward Outlook and Risk Consideration

The recent price action suggests a potential continuation of the upward move, with key resistance at $1.1950 and support at $1.1270. Traders should monitor the 20-period MA and RSI for confirmation of trend strength. However, the overbought RSI and recent volatility spikes imply increased risk of short-term corrections.

Backtest Hypothesis

A hypothetical backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on bullish engulfing or golden cross signals, with stop-losses placed below key support levels such as the 38.2% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Targets could be set at the next Fibonacci level or upper Bollinger Band. The strategy would aim to leverage the confirmed bullish momentum post 02:00 ET while managing risk via strict trailing stops. This aligns with the observed price structure and MACD confirmation during the rally.