Market Overview for Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) – 2025-09-19

• AVNTUSDT posted a sharp 24-hour decline from 1.1336 to 1.0499, marking a 7.38% drop.
• Price spent most of the day below key moving averages and within a descending channel.
• RSI entered oversold territory near 30, suggesting potential bounce but not reversal.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the sell-off, signaling heightened volatility.
• Volume surged during the price collapse but diverged from turnover at the close, suggesting fading momentum.

Avantis/Tether (AVNTUSDT) opened at 1.0719 (12:00 ET − 1) and closed at 1.0499 (12:00 ET), with a high of 1.1336 and low of 1.0063. Total volume was 25,151,576.9 and total turnover stood at 26,378,354.34. A sharp decline dominated the session, driven by a large-volume sell-off overnight.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick data reveals a bearish continuation pattern with a strong breakdown from the 1.11–1.13 resistance cluster. The overnight plunge from 1.1336 to 1.0063 includes a large bearish engulfing pattern and a deep Doji at the session low. Support appears to be forming around 1.03–1.05, where price found some buyers after the selloff, though the cluster may break if the downward trend continues.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA (1.06–1.08) and 50SMA (1.07–1.09) have acted as bearish lines, with price consistently closing below both. On the daily scale, the 50DMA sits near 1.10, while the 200DMA is around 1.12. These levels may act as overhead resistance if the pair attempts a short-term rebound.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish during the overnight selloff, with the histogram showing deep negative divergence. RSI dropped to 30, indicating oversold territory, but with no immediate bullish reversal signs. A move above the 1.06–1.07 range could reinvigorate momentum indicators.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the sell-off, with the bands widening from a narrow 1.07–1.11 to a wide 1.01–1.14 range. Price currently sits near the lower band at 1.05, and a bounce from this level may see a retest of the 1.08–1.09 mid-band. A sustained break below 1.03 could signal further bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff, particularly around the 1.13–1.06 and 1.02–1.04 price ranges, but turnover failed to confirm the depth of the move. The divergence suggests that large-volume sellers may have exited the market, leaving smaller participants to trade at lower levels. A rebound without accompanying volume could be short-lived.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the overnight move (1.1336 to 1.0063), the key levels include 38.2% at 1.079 and 61.8% at 1.045. Price is currently near the 61.8% retracement level, which has acted as a short-term floor. A breakout above this level could target the 38.2% level for a potential bounce, though further confirmation is needed.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current setup, a potential backtest strategy could look for a bullish breakout above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (1.045) with volume confirmation and a close above the 50SMA. A stop-loss below 1.025 and a target at 1.08 would capture a potential short-term reversal. This strategy would require a 3–5% risk-to-reward ratio, with position sizing adjusted for volatility. Over the last 24 hours, such a trigger would have entered late but aligned with the observed Fibonacci and moving average structure.