Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) – September 25, 2025

• AVAX/USDT dropped ~12.5% in 24 hours, with price breaking below key support and closing near session low.
• Strong bearish momentum confirmed by RSI and MACD divergence, signaling continuation risk.
• Volatility expanded as price traded ~$4.40 range, with volume and turnover surging post-break.
• Bollinger Bands widened post-18:00 ET, confirming bearish trend expansion and breakdown confirmation.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at $31.76 and $30.90 now critical for near-term support and potential bounce.

The 24-hour candle for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $34.45 on September 24 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $34.85, a low of $30.05, and closed at $30.25 at 12:00 ET on September 25. Total volume traded was 18,023,757.68 AVAX, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $563.08 million, reflecting heightened bearish activity. Price formed a decisive bearish breakdown pattern following a prolonged sell-off after 18:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price action unfolded in a distinct bearish sequence, with a clear breakdown below key support levels. A large bearish engulfing pattern was visible between 19:45 and 20:00 ET, signaling strong conviction in the downward move. Subsequent bearish continuation patterns, including a dark cloud cover and a long lower wick, confirmed ongoing selling pressure. A notable doji formed at 04:45 ET, indicating a temporary equilibrium point before the further sell-off. The price has now consolidated near $30.25, with 61.8% Fibonacci level at $30.90 providing immediate support and 38.2% at $31.76 next. A breakdown below $30.05 could test the next Fibonacci target at $29.39.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period EMAs both confirmed the bearish bias, with price staying well below both. The 20 EMA crossed under the 50 EMA, forming a death cross. Daily, the 50-period EMA is significantly above the 100- and 200-period EMAs, reinforcing the bearish trend. The price remains well below all three, with a strong likelihood of further downward bias until it retests key moving average levels.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line was deeply in negative territory, confirming bearish momentum with a wide histogram that has been expanding since 18:00 ET. RSI fell below 30, entering oversold territory at the session’s low, but this does not yet signal a strong reversal—more likely a continuation of the bearish trend. RSI divergence was observed around 03:00 ET, where price made a higher low but RSI made a lower low, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as price moved from the upper Bollinger Band to the lower band over the session. Price spent the final two-thirds of the 24-hour period near the lower band, confirming the bearish momentum. A sharp contraction in the bands occurred between 02:00 and 03:00 ET, followed by a large bearish expansion. The current price is at or near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting potential for a bounce but with limited reversal strength unless it clears the 20-period EMA.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically after 18:00 ET and again after 22:00 ET, coinciding with the breakdown and subsequent sell-off. The highest single 15-minute volume candle was at 22:15 ET with 146,518.82 AVAX, and a corresponding notional turnover of $4.87 million. Volume and price action remained aligned with the bearish move, with no significant divergence observed. The closing 15-minute period showed a moderate volume increase, suggesting renewed attention in the pair.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing high of $34.85 and low of $30.05, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels at $32.58 and $31.76, respectively, are now key levels. Price is currently near the 61.8% level at $30.90, offering potential for a bounce. On the daily timeframe, the recent swing from $34.85 to $30.05 confirms a similar retracement structure. A close above $31.76 could signal bearish exhaustion and a potential countertrend move, though bearish confirmation remains strong unless volume diverges.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves a bearish breakout setup with a target-to-stop ratio of 1:1. It triggers on a close below a defined support level (in this case, $32.58), with a stop above the 15-minute high of the breakout candle. A target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($31.76) and beyond. The current price is near this level, and the strategy would now be in profit territory, suggesting confirmation of the short setup. The next key level to watch is the 38.2% retracement at $32.58, where a rejection or bounce could trigger a reversal signal in the backtest. This approach aligns with the observed bearish continuation pattern and strong RSI/EMA confirmation.