Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT)

Summary
• AVAXUSDT dropped 5.5% in 24 hours, closing at 15.98 after a volatile pullback from 17.10.
• Key support tested at 16.20–16.40, with diverging volume and price action signaling uncertainty.
• Momentum indicators hint at oversold conditions, though trend remains bearish.

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at 16.75 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of 17.10 before falling to a low of 15.95 and closing at 15.98 by 12:00 ET today. Total 24-hour volume was 1,492,014.53 AVAX, with notional turnover reaching approximately $24,692,586. The pair has shown a clear bearish bias in recent sessions, with price action breaking below key intraday support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours displayed a bearish breakdown from 16.80–17.00 resistance, marked by a long lower shadow at 02:15 ET and a bearish engulfing pattern at 03:45 ET. A key support zone between 16.20 and 16.40 is now under pressure, with a potential test of 15.95–16.00 as the next short-term level. A doji at 05:00 ET signaled indecision, while the low at 06:00 ET (15.99) marked a potential short-term bottom.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20SMA (16.48) and 50SMA (16.61), suggesting continued bearish momentum. Daily data shows price below the 50D (16.92), 100D (17.14), and 200D (17.40) averages, affirming a broader downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained bearish with a negative histogram and a crossing below the signal line. RSI fell into oversold territory, dipping to 31 at 08:00 ET, hinting at potential near-term reversal. However, price failed to retrace above 16.50, suggesting continued selling pressure may dominate.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as price moved from the upper to the lower band within the 24-hour period. Price currently sits near the lower band at 15.95–16.00, indicating a high degree of pessimism. A bounce off the lower band may trigger a retracement, but without a clear reversal confirmation, the bearish bias holds.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at key breakdown levels, particularly at 16.60–16.70 (05:15 ET), confirming bearish sentiment. However, volume tailed off during the 15.95–16.00 decline, suggesting exhaustion. Turnover aligned with price declines, confirming bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fib levels from the 15.95–17.10 swing show 16.40 (38.2%) and 16.63 (61.8%) as key levels to watch. A close above 16.63 could trigger a medium-term rebound, while a retest below 16.20 may signal a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The data-related issue with “HOLD.P” prevented the automated calculation of the RSI series for backtesting. However, based on the observed RSI dip into oversold territory, the RSI(14) appears to align with a potential buy signal. Once a valid ticker is confirmed, we can proceed with the “RSI < 30 → buy next-day open → sell after 3 trading days” strategy. Using this 24-hour RSI and price data, AVAXUSDT may soon present such a signal, assuming it breaks above 16.63 with strong volume confirmation.