Market Overview: Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

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• AVAXUSDT declined 6.45% over the last 24 hours, closing at $27.97 after hitting a peak of $29.63.
• Momentum weakened as RSI fell below 30, signaling potential oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, with price breaking key support levels.
• Candlestick patterns showed a bearish engulfing and a long lower shadow at critical support.
• Turnover surged during the downward move, confirming bearish sentiment and increased participation.

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $28.35 on October 8 at 12:00 ET and closed at $27.97 on October 9 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $29.63 and a low of $27.83. The 24-hour volume totaled 1,730,383.59 AVAX with a notional turnover of $49,290,740.50, reflecting significant bearish conviction.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish engulfing pattern after a failed test of $29.16, indicating strong distribution. A doji formed at $28.40, signaling indecision, followed by a breakdown below $28.32. Key support levels at $28.00 and $27.80 are now in focus. Resistance remains at $28.50, which failed to hold during the early morning sell-off.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are bearishly aligned, with price falling below both. The 50-period daily MA currently sits at ~$28.60, suggesting a bearish bias. Price is well below the 200-day MA, reinforcing a medium-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line, confirming the bearish momentum. RSI has fallen to ~28, entering oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, without a strong reversal, the bearish trend is likely to persist.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as the Bollinger Bands widened from ~$0.10 to ~$0.80 width during the drop to $27.83. Price currently trades near the lower band, suggesting oversold conditions. A bounce above the middle band ($28.39) may offer a temporary relief, but failure to hold $28.50 could push it further down.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the afternoon and evening sell-off, with the largest candle (19:00–19:15 ET) contributing $1.64M in turnover. The divergence between price and volume is not evident—volume increased alongside the drop, confirming bearish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the $27.83–$29.63 swing, price is at the 61.8% retracement level (~$28.32). A break below $28.00 would target the 78.6% level (~$27.64). For the daily chart, a breakdown below the 61.8% of the $28.00–$29.63 swing could test the psychological $27.50 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-term strategy could involve entering short positions on a close below key support levels (e.g., $28.32) with a stop above the 50-period MA and a target aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the bearish MACD and RSI readings, the strategy may also include a trailing stop to lock in gains if price bounces. This approach could be backtested using historical data from October 2024 to October 2025 to assess win rate and risk-reward ratios.