Market Overview: Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) - 24-Hour Analysis

• AVAX/USDT declined sharply from $33.31 to $29.41 amid heavy volume, showing bearish momentum.
• Key resistance at $32.27 and support at $31.00 were tested multiple times during the 24-hour window.
• RSI oversold conditions emerged after the $31.00 level, suggesting potential for short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded sharply after 00:45 ET as price dropped $1.00 within 15 minutes.
• Volume surged 10x at the $30.40–$29.41 leg, signaling aggressive liquidation pressure.

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $33.08 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $33.31, then fell to a low of $29.41 before closing at $31.10 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. Total volume traded over the 24-hour window was approximately 2.08 million AVAX, with a notional turnover of $61.87 million, indicating heightened market activity during the sharp sell-off phase.

The price action showed a strong bearish bias, especially after the drop below the $32.00 support level. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed around $33.03–$32.77 during early morning hours, followed by a long bearish candle at $32.73–$32.77. The price later found temporary support at $31.00, forming a doji at that level, suggesting a possible consolidation zone. Resistance levels at $32.27 and $33.01 were tested multiple times, but failed to hold.

The 15-minute chart showed the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trending downward, with the price closing below both, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving averages were also in a descending alignment, supporting the continuation of the downtrend. MACD crossed below the signal line with bearish divergence in the histogram, while the RSI plunged into oversold territory below 30 for several hours, indicating potential for a short-term rebound or bounce. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff phase, showing a surge in volatility, with prices at the lower band for much of the session.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the $33.31 high to $29.41 low showed price testing the 61.8% level at around $31.00, which acted as a temporary floor. Volume spiked during the breakdown below $32.00 and again during the $31.00–$29.41 leg, aligning with the price action and confirming bearish momentum. The divergence between price and RSI at the $31.00 level suggests the potential for a short-term bounce, but a retest of the $29.41 low or a break below $30.00 could extend the downward move.

Backtest Hypothesis: Based on the observed bearish engulfing and doji patterns, combined with RSI entering oversold conditions and volume surging during the breakdown, a potential short-term bounce from the $31.00 support level could be a viable trade. A mean-reversion strategy could be backtested: enter a long position on a close above $31.00 with a stop loss below $30.80 and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $31.36. This setup would aim to capitalize on the oversold RSI divergence and the consolidation forming at the $31.00–$31.36 range.