Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) — 2025-09-15

• Price surged to $30.40 before retreating to $28.84 amid high-volume bearish pressure.
• RSI oversold conditions and Bollinger Band contraction suggest a potential short-term rebound.
• Key support appears at $28.50, with $29.80 resistance showing bearish rejection.
• Volume spiked during the downward leg, confirming bearish momentum.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest a possible consolidation near $28.90–$29.05.

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $29.19 (12:00 ET – 1), reached a high of $30.40, dipped to a low of $28.43, and closed at $28.84 (12:00 ET) with total volume of 2,184,308.22 and turnover of $61,295,658.

Structure & Formations

The price structure shows a bearish exhaustion pattern after a strong upward thrust to $30.40, followed by a sharp pullback below the $29.00 psychological level. A large bearish candle at $28.76–$28.43 indicates strong bear control. Key support levels include $28.50, $28.71, and $28.90, while resistance levels at $29.07 and $29.80 have been tested multiple times. A potential bullish engulfing pattern appears near $28.50, hinting at a short-term reversal if buyers step in.

Moving Averages & Technical Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is below the 50-period MA, indicating a bearish bias. Daily MA (50/100/200) all show downward trends, with AVAXUSDT trading below all three. The RSI is in oversold territory, suggesting a potential bounce. MACD is negative and flattening, hinting at a slowing bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands have contracted during the early morning hours, suggesting a potential breakout in either direction. Price is currently near the lower Bollinger Band, reinforcing the bearish tilt.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the decline from $30.40 to $28.43, confirming the bearish trend. A volume divergence is visible near $29.16, where price found support but volume declined—suggesting weak bearish conviction. Turnover has been consistently higher during the downward moves, aligning with the bearish momentum. The final bearish candle (28.76–28.43) had the highest volume of the 24-hour period, validating the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels on the recent 15-minute swing from $28.43 to $30.40 show key levels at $29.52 (38.2%), $29.16 (50%), and $28.90 (61.8%). Price found support near $28.90 and $28.71, both of which align with Fibonacci levels. On the daily chart, the $29.80–$30.40 retracement level is a key resistance area. A bounce from $28.90 could see price test $29.16–$29.52 before facing further resistance at $29.80.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering long positions when price retests the 50% Fibonacci level (currently $29.16) with RSI above 30 and a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed. Exit is at the 38.2% retracement level ($29.52) or stop-loss at the 61.8% level ($28.90). Recent candle patterns at $28.90 suggest this strategy may offer a short-term high-probability trade, particularly if volume divergences confirm a bottoming process.