Market Overview for Avalanche (AVAXUSD): August 28, 2025

• • •

• Price Action: Avalanche (AVAXUSD) broke key support at $24.88 during a volatile 15-minute candle, reaching $24.40 before consolidating near $24.74.
• Momentum Shift: RSI signaled oversold conditions after the dip, with buying pressure evident post-1 AM ET.
• Low Volume Divergence: Despite sharp price swings, trading volume remained subdued, suggesting limited conviction in current price direction.

Avalanche (AVAXUSD) opened at $25.15 on August 27 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $25.17 and a low of $24.40 before closing at $24.74 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 2,158.75 AVAX, with a notional turnover of approximately $53,323.57.

Structure & Formations

AVAXUSD exhibited a sharp breakdown from a consolidation range above $24.88, with a bearish engulfing candle forming around 19:15 ET, signaling potential short-term bearish momentum. A low-volume doji at $24.40 on early August 28 indicated indecision. Resistance levels at $24.74 and $24.88 were retested but not decisively broken, while key support rested at $24.40 and $24.31.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA (24.76) and 50SMA (24.78) were closely aligned, suggesting a neutral bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA (25.30) and 200DMA (26.10) indicated a bearish bias, with the price below both, suggesting further downside could be in play if support levels fail.

MACD & RSI

MACD on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover below the zero line during the breakdown, with negative divergence persisting into the early hours of August 28. RSI hit oversold territory (below 30) at $24.40, hinting at potential rebound, although a rebound may lack conviction without a significant volume spike.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the breakdown at $24.40, with the price closing near the lower band. The bands had been contracting earlier, indicating a period of consolidation before the recent move. The price has since moved into the middle band range, suggesting potential for a continuation or consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Despite a large price swing from $25.17 to $24.40, volume remained below 500 AVAX in most periods, with notable spikes at 19:15 ET and 22:15 ET. Total turnover spiked during the breakdown but failed to confirm a strong bearish move, suggesting a lack of consensus among market participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute swing, a 61.8% retracement level was identified at $24.76, which corresponded closely to the 20SMA and acted as a minor support/resistance area. A 38.2% retracement at $24.94 remained untested, but could serve as a target for potential bounces.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern with confirmation by a close below the 20SMA and RSI in oversold territory. Exit could be triggered upon a 50SMA cross above or a 20% RSI rebound. This approach aligns with the recent breakdown and oversold bounce, though volume confirmation remains a key missing piece for robust strategy validation.